Oil futures hit peak of nearly 10 months

According to The Denver Post:

With the summer driving season in full swing, prices top $70 a barrel on news that gas inventories fell.

By John Wilen
The Associated Press
Article Last Updated: 06/29/2007 12:27:43 AM MDT

New York – Oil futures spiked above $70 a barrel Thursday for the first time since Sept. 1 on a government report that showed gasoline inventories dropped unexpectedly as the summer driving season neared its peak.

Retail gasoline prices, meanwhile, broke a month-long decline and held steady overnight at a national average price of $2.975 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Gas prices had been falling steadily since their May 24 peak of $3.227 a gallon.

Analysts warned that pump prices could start rising again if there’s an imbalance between demand and supply.

“Gasoline demand stays strong,” said Paul Horsnell, an analyst at Barclays Capital. “While it is still early in the driving season, June demand has now moved close to the all-time record for any month.”

After rising as high as $70.52 and trading above $70 for several hours, light, sweet crude for August delivery closed the day’s trading up 60 cents at $69.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The front month contract last settled above $70 on Aug. 31, 2006.

Gasoline futures for July rose 1.21 cents to settle at $2.2667 a gallon on the Nymex.

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The real casus belli: peak oil

According to Guardian:

In a world of looming fuel shortage, Britain and the US formalised their energy fears with a war

David Strahan
Tuesday June 26, 2007
The Guardian

Even as one of the principal architects of the Iraq war washes his hands of the whole bloody mess, there is still only a vague understanding of the real reason behind the invasion, but evidence of the intense interest of the international oil companies continues to build. Only last week, ExxonMobil chief executive Rex Tillerson said in London: “We look forward to the day when we can partner with Iraq to develop that resource potential.” Despite their interest and influence, however, the decision to attack was not taken in the boardroom. Iraq was indeed all about oil, but in a sense that transcends the interests of individual corporations, however large.

The elephant in the drawing room was the fact that global oil production is likely to peak within about a decade. Aggregate oil production in the developed world has been falling since 1997, and all major forecasters expect world output excluding Opec to peak by the middle of the next decade. From then on everything depends on the cartel, but unfortunately there is growing evidence that Opec’s members have been exaggerating the size of their reserves for decades.

Oil consultancy PFC Energy briefed Dick Cheney in 2005 that on a more realistic assessment of Opec’s reserves, its production could peak by 2015. A report by the US Department of Energy, also in 2005, concluded that without a crash programme of mitigation 20 years before the event, the economic and social impacts of the oil peak would be “unprecedented”. The evidence suggests these fears were already weighing heavily with Cheney, Bush and Blair.

In a world of looming shortage, Iraq represented a unique opportunity. With 115bn barrels, it had the world’s third biggest reserves, and after years of war and sanctions they were the most underexploited. In the late 1990s, production averaged about 2m barrels, but with the necessary investment its reserves could support three times that. In a report to the security council, UN inspectors warned in January 2000 that sanctions had caused irreversible damage to Iraq’s reservoirs. But sanctions could not be lifted with Saddam still in place.

Cheney knew, fretting about global oil depletion in a speech in London the following year, where he noted that “the Middle East with two thirds of the world’s oil and lowest cost is still where the prize ultimately lies”. Blair too had reason to be anxious: British North Sea output had peaked in 1999, while the petrol protests of 2000 had made the importance of maintaining the fuel supply excruciatingly obvious.

Britain’s and the US’s fears were secretly formalised during the planning for Iraq. It is widely accepted that Blair’s commitment to support the attack dates back to his summit with Bush in Texas in April 2002. What is less well known is that at the same summit, Blair proposed and Bush agreed to set up the US-UK Energy Dialogue, a permanent liaison dedicated to “energy security and diversity”. Its existence was only later exposed through a freedom of information inquiry.

Both governments refuse to release minutes of Dialogue meetings, but one paper dated February 2003 notes that to meet projected demand, oil production in the Middle East would have to double by 2030 to more than 50m barrels a day. So on the eve of the invasion, UK and US officials were discussing how to raise production from the region – and we are invited to believe this is coincidence. The bitterest irony is, of course, that the invasion has created conditions that guarantee oil production will remain hobbled for years to come, bringing the global oil peak that much closer. So if that was plan A, what on earth is plan B?

· David Strahan is the author of The Last Oil Shock: A Survival Guide to the Imminent Extinction of Petroleum Man
Lastoilshock.com

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Iran oil exports at risk in UK ship sanctions plan

According to Yahoo!Singapore News:

LONDON (Reuters) – A British proposal to target Iran’s national shipping lines under a draft U.N. sanctions resolution could temporarily curb Tehran’s ability to export oil to world markets, maritime sources said on Tuesday.

The confidential draft, obtained by Reuters on Friday, suggests denying rights of passage to Iranian merchant ships in foreign waters. The withdrawal of landing rights for Iranian aircraft is also suggested.

The proposal would have countries “deny permission to take off from, land in or overfly their territories, or berth in or secure passage through their territorial waters, of all aircraft and vessels owned or controlled by Iranian airlines or shipping companies.

Under the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention ships of all nations have the right of innocent passage through a country’s territorial seas. U.N. member nations are bound to enforce Security Council resolutions once adopted.

Oil shipping sources said on Tuesday that, if adopted, the proposal could have a short-term effect on Iran’s ability to supply oil to world markets, even though U.S. and European officials insist it is not meant to target Iran’s oil.

“It’s a question of logistics,” said James Davis of Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit (LMIU) in London, a consultancy that tracks global oil tanker flows.

SHORT-TERM IMPACT

He said Iran could revert to the commercial shipping market to move its oil, thereby side-stepping the United Nations.

“Whether there is enough tanker capacity to cover it is another question, but I think we are looking at a short-term impact,” he said.

The draft sanctions proposal is aimed at ratcheting up pressure on Iran for defying U.N. Security Council demands to halt uranium enrichment.

Iran says its goal is peaceful generation of electricity. The West fears the enrichment is aimed at producing a nuclear weapon.

Oil ship industry sources estimate that around 40 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports are shipped on National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) vessels. An NITC official contacted by Reuters in Tehran declined to say how much the state-owned fleet carried.

Iran, OPEC’s second largest producer, pumps 3.85 million barrels of crude a day and exports 2.4 million barrels of that on tankers by sea, with about 60 percent bound for Asia and the remainder shipped to Europe.

Washington has banned U.S. companies from lifting Iranian oil and investing in Iran since 1995.

“For 2007 we’ve observed under 40 percent of crude oil exports shipped on NITC vessels, mostly from Kharg Island in the Gulf,” LMIU’s Davis said.

One of the biggest oil tanker firms operating in the Gulf estimated the figure to be 42 percent of exports.

Davis said the remainder was moved by oil firms aboard their own supertanker fleets or aboard privately chartered vessels.

“The main lifters are Japanese, Indian, Chinese, South Korean. A small amount goes to southern Europe,” he said.

A second proposal would target aircraft and vessels — including those operated by the Islamic of Republic of Iran Shipping Line and Iran Air Cargo — that traffic in goods banned under two previous U.N. resolutions.

- If this sanctions becomes reality, oil prices will be hit suddenly! The spike might hurt the world market! Just be prepared!

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Japanese PM to visit India, Indonesia, Malaysia in August

According to Yahoo!News :

TOKYO (AFP) – Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will visit India, Indonesia and Malaysia in August, the government said, as he tries to build a closer alliance with New Delhi and builds on Southeast Asian ties.

The Japanese leader will travel first to Indonesia, then to India and Malaysia for one week starting on August 19, the prime minister’s office said.

Abe has long championed nurturing ties with fellow democracy India to balance Japan’s frequent tensions with China, which is due largely to wartime history.

Abe’s counterpart Manmohan Singh visited Tokyo in December, becoming the first Indian premier here in five years, and agreed to boost business ties which have lagged behind the two countries’ political relationship.

Trade Minister Akira Amari is due to visit India from June 30 to July 4 with a major business delegation to announce a Japanese initiative to develop the South Asian country’s creaky infrastructure.

Japan has also put an emphasis on ties with Southeast Asia, including through business dealings.

Abe has signed a free-trade deal with Malaysia and the framework for a deal with Indonesia, which is the largest supplier of liquefied natural gas to resource-poor Japan.

The timing of Monday’s announcement was unusual as Abe, who is struggling in the polls, faces key elections on July 29. A defeat would likely lead to calls for him to step down.

Asked if Abe was trying to show that he expected to be in charge in August, chief government spokesman Yasuhisa Shiozaki said only, “This is what has been scheduled for the prime minister’s foreign travel.”

Abe has travelled widely as prime minister, aiming in part to diversify from his predecessor Junichiro Koizumi’s focus on relations with the United States.

Abe travelled to China and South Korea shortly after taking office, managing to improve ties that were badly strained under Koizumi.

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US expert calls for ‘peak oil’ study

According to Ararat:

The federal government must immediately and rigorously assess the looming impact of peak oil, a former White House consultant says.

Dr Roger Bezdek is in Australia for a series of lectures on the theory of peak oil – the idea that we have arrived at or are about to arrive at the high point of oil production ahead of a terminal decline.

He called for the government to create an independent body to study peak oil and create solutions ahead of a “liquid fuels crisis”.

“On the demand side, they should stress transportation efficiency and enhanced fuel efficiency standards,” Dr Bezdek said in a statement.

“On the supply side, the federal government should encourage and pursue all viable options including coal-to-liquids, oil shale, biomass, and hybrid vehicles.”

But Dr Bezdek warned it may already be too late to address peak oil, which was first mooted in the 1950s.

“If oil peaks within 10 years, it may already be too late to avoid serious problems,” he said.

“It took the world more than 20 years to recognise the significance of climate change.

“We do not have 20 years to bring this issue to the world’s attention.”

Dr Bezdek is the founder and president of Management Information Services, a Washington-based economic and energy research firm.

In the past he has given advice to the White House and acted as an energy delegate to NATO.

The federal government is addressing some of Dr Bezdek’s concerns but not because it is worried about peak oil.

Initiatives like federal grants for motorists to change their cars to liquid gas power have been brought on because of concerns about global warming and the price of petrol, not peak oil theory.

The government also has an ethanol target for petrol companies – a modest 350 megalitres of ethanol fuel by 2010.

In February, the Senate’s Legislative and General Purpose Standing Committee tabled a report titled Australia’s Future Oil Supply and Alternative Transport Fuels.

The committee made 10 recommendations which included diverse responses to the threat of peak oil.

Congestion taxes on inner-city drivers, increased funding for biofuel research and a reassessment of official estimates of future oil supply were all recommended.

The government is yet to respond to the recommendations.

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Future Shock: End of the Oil Age

According to RTE Television :

Watch The Show Here

In Future Shock: End of the Oil Age, RTÉ’s Chief Economic Correspondent George Lee brings us to the heart of one of the biggest challenges that Ireland faces in the future – life after Peak Oil.

Peak Oil refers to a point in time when, with remaining reserves beginning to diminish, world oil production will reach its maximum point. The crossing of this simple threshold will be one of the biggest events in modern history: every day that passes after Peak Oil, there will be less oil available. The ensuing and inevitable rise in oil prices will be only the first of the continuing shocks for Ireland and the developed world.

In this, the second of RTÉ Television’s Future Shock programmes, George Lee examines how close we are to the end of the oil age and how dramatically life may change in Ireland as the wells begin, finally, to dry up.

The Celtic Tiger thrived on a diet of cheap fuel. Indeed, the whole of Ireland’s trading economy, from our labour supply to our civic structures, from our ever-expanding suburbs to our lifestyle and leisure patterns, are all based on cheap fuel and maximum mobility. Without this steady supply of cheap oil, many of the presumptions behind our very standard of living itself may require rapid re-evaluation.

After the oil crash, even Ireland’s geographical position as an Atlantic island could become a defining, and isolating, factor in Ireland’s future.

George Lee is Chief Economics Correspondent for RTÉ News and Current Affairs, reporting for both RTÉ Radio and RTÉ Television.

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Driving home theory of peak oil

According to TimesUnion.com :

Grass-roots groups doing plenty to educate others of sinking production, expanding demand

By LARRY RULISON, Business writer
Click byline for more stories by writer.
First published: Sunday, June 24, 2007

Cheryl Nechamen knows that when a discussion turns to the theory of “peak oil,” listeners’ eyes tend to glaze over. So she’s been pleasantly surprised at how well talking about the 100-mile diet helps to break the ice.

The peak oil theory is extremely controversial. It stipulates that the world has reached — or is about to reach — its peak oil production, and society’s demand for oil will soon start outstripping supply, wreaking havoc on the world economy.

The United States already reached its peak oil production in the 1970s, and that is why it must get oil from other regions.

On the other hand, the 100-mile diet is much more colorful and approachable. The practice originated in 2005 with a couple in Vancouver, Canada, who wanted to reduce the amount of petroleum used to transport food to their table by only buying items grown or made within 100 miles of their home.

Nechamen, a microbiologist who lives in Schenectady, promotes awareness about the peak oil problem through a group she founded called Capital District Energy Action.

But she says her Web site about the 100-mile diet and the frequent talks she gives about the program help her educate people about peak oil.

“It’s been more effective than anything else I’ve tried,” she said.

Nechamen is one of a growing number of people in the Capital Region who are focusing their own energy trying to get the word out about peak oil.

And it’s all at the grass-roots level, with groups like Nechamen’s using the power of the Internet to stir up discussions and organize events.

Each group has its own voice and views, although many of their members attend each other’s events. Barely visible to the general public, they are trying to enlighten people on the looming environmental and economic problem one potluck supper at a time.

Capital Region Energy Forum is another grass-roots group. Its chairman is Paul Swartz, a former General Electric Co. researcher who was one of the founders of Intermagnetics General Corp., now Philips Medical Systems MR.

CREF, as it is known, has been holding meetings at the Italian American Community Center, where members talk about energy policy and technological advances and share a buffet dinner. Speakers have also included energy experts from GE.

The group is working on the creation of a “peak oil protocol,” which members want to use to help mobilize community and political leaders on the issue.

“This whole thing is a voluntary effort,” Swartz said. “We don’t come with a political agenda. We come educating ourselves.”

Another grass-roots group, the Hudson-Mohawk CoRE Project (for community renewable energy), organizes public energy forums aimed at reducing the region’s dependence on oil.

One of the highlights of the local grass-roots efforts occurred last year when a number of groups sponsored a talk in Albany by noted peak oil author Richard Heinberg, who wrote the book “The Party’s Over.” Heinberg said the Capital Region needs to develop more walkable communities and work on producing electricity from renewable sources such as wind and solar.

Dave Smalley, who lives in the town of Glen in Montgomery County, said he has attended CoRE meetings and communicates with members online. The state retiree powers his home with solar electricity and heats it with a passive solar system and a small wood stove.

Smalley said the realities of peak oil will force people to eventually curb their consumption and travel habits as oil becomes scarce and extremely expensive.

He admits the change could hurt retail businesses, such as those at Crossgates Mall, that rely on people driving there and buying products that are shipped in from thousands of miles away.

“It’s not our job to support that,” Smalley said. “Our job is to come up with a sustainable pattern.”

Another local activist in the peak oil community is Christian Grieco. The Glenmont resident, who has a 3.6-kilowatt solar electric system at his home, is the local organizer for the open-house tour of green buildings held each fall by the Northeast Sustainable Energy Association at homes that have renewable power and heating systems.

Like others in the local peak oil community, Grieco was motivated by the movie “The End of Suburbia,” which focuses on the dwindling oil supply and how it will impact the American way of life.

“It was so powerful and utterly depressing,” he said. “There will be a day of reckoning.”

Jim Zach of Saratoga Springs was also moved by the film, and in December 2005 started the group Sustainable Saratoga Springs. It is an affiliate of the Post Carbon Institute, a California-based group that seeks to change consumption habits and also advocates for the local production of food and energy.

Zach said his group, which has about 35 members, communicates mostly through the Internet but also holds so-called salons, where they gather for discussions and to showcase things like Zach’s organic garden.

Zach said he also was inspired by the documentary “The Power of Community — How Cuba Survived Peak Oil,” which shows how Cuba adapted to the U.S. embargo and the fall of the Soviet Union, which cut off its oil supply. Organic farms sprang up everywhere, and the island embraced mass transit and bicycles.

“Becoming a farmer became a noble profession,” he said.

- Let’s show what I had been doing!!

My Potato Urban Farm!
My potato urban farm is starting!

My Solar Panels!
My Solar Panels!

My Solar Lights!
Solar panels charged this battery!
solar lights
LEDs!!
LED Lights!
My Solar Panels charging these batteries!
Hidden Batteries!

My vision is not yet complete, my solar panels are just 70 Watts! Must lower then optimal for a house to sustain life….but I am not giving up!

Singapore HDB must SOLVE this sustainable house puzzle and if I CAN DO IT…SO CAN YOU!

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Google and Utility to Test Hybrids That Sell Back Power

According to New York Times:

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif., June 18 — Google and Pacific Gas & Electric have unveiled their vision of a future in which cars and trucks are partly powered by the country’s electric grids, and vice versa.

The companies displayed on Monday six Toyota Prius and Ford Escape hybrid vehicles modified to run partly on electricity from the power grid, allowing the vehicles to go up to 75 miles on a gallon of gas, nearly double the number of miles of a regular hybrid. They also modified one vehicle to give electricity back to the power company.

The highly unusual test takes the hybrid, which is now familiar on American roads, a step further by using extra batteries to hold energy made and distributed by a power company. The technology is eagerly awaited by energy experts and environmentalists, but is not yet ready to go commercial because the additional batteries are not yet durable enough.

Google’s philanthropic foundation, Google.org, headed by Larry Brilliant, led the conversion and announced that it would be investing or giving away about $10 million to accelerate the development of battery technology, plug-in hybrids, and vehicles capable of returning stored energy to the grid.

Speaking on a sun-splashed dais in Google’s parking lot to an audience well shaded by one of its new solar arrays, Mr. Brilliant described the vehicle designed to give energy back to the grid as “a bit of a science project.”

But some observers, like the Stanford professor Stephen Schneider, who was one of the authors of the recent United Nations report on climate change, said that just getting this embryonic technology demonstrated by a company with Google’s heft was a victory in itself. “These guys have clout with hundreds of millions of young and middle-aged people,” he said, adding that what was necessary to jump-start a new type of car was a combination of reliability, affordability and “cool.”

The six vehicles are used by Google employees near the company’s Mountain View headquarters, and sit under a carport with a roof of solar cells. The cells are connected to the power grid, so they make energy whether the cars are charging or not. Dan Reicher, Google.org’s director for climate change and energy initiatives, said the carports were meant to demonstrate a switch from fossil fuels to solar power.

Google is using batteries from A123Systems of Watertown, Mass., a company that sells an aftermarket kit to convert the Prius to a plug-in vehicle.

The Prius that has been converted to allow two-way flows of electricity is a more speculative project. PG&E, the utility serving Northern California, will send wireless signals to the car while it is parked and plugged in to determine its state of charge. It can then recharge the batteries or draw out power.

The transactions will be tiny, a few kilowatt-hours at a time, worth a few cents each, but if there were thousands of such vehicles, a utility could store power produced in slack hours until it was needed at peak times, said Brad Whitcomb, PG&E’s vice president for customer products and services.

Some researchers say that utilities pay billions a year to power plants to stand by, ready to produce extra power or to provide small quantities of energy to maintain the frequency of the system at precisely 60 cycles a second. Plug-in hybrids could fill those roles, annually earning thousands of dollars each, some experts say.

But if a car gave all of its energy back to the grid, it would be left to run on gasoline, giving up the environmental benefit.

A plug-in hybrid can lower emissions of carbon dioxide and smog-causing gases. It can go three to four miles on a kilowatt-hour, experts say. If that electricity came from natural gas, that may mean under a quarter-pound of carbon dioxide is emitted each mile. In contrast, a car that gets 20 miles a gallon on unleaded gas emits about a pound of carbon dioxide each mile.

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Temasek to Sell 3 Singapore Power Firms

According to Yahoo!Finance News:

Singapore’s Temasek to Sell 3 Singapore Power Companies by Early 2009

SINGAPORE (AP) — Singapore’s state-owned investment company Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd. said Tuesday it will sell three Singapore power generation companies over the next 12 to 18 months.

Potential buyers have been showing interest since last year in PowerSeraya Ltd., Senoko Power Ltd. and Tuas Power Ltd., Temasek said in a statement. All three are wholly owned by Temasek and together supply about 90 percent of Singapore’s power, with a combined generating capacity of 9,070 megawatts.

Sale of the companies has been delayed several times since 1998. One public tender for a 60 percent stake of Tuas Power was called off in 1999 because of restructuring of Singapore Power Ltd., which distributes the power generated by the three power companies and is also wholly owned by Temasek.

In 2002, analysts estimated the companies were worth about 2 billion Singapore dollars (US$1.3 billion; euro0.97 billion) each. Mirant Corp. sold Philippines generating assets with 2,203 megawatts of capacity last year to Japanese investors for US$3.42 billion (euro2.55 billion).

Singapore conglomerate, SembCorp Industries Ltd., itself 50 percent owned by Temasek, said it would look at buying at least one of the Singapore power companies.

Temasek has appointed Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley as advisers for the sale, a company spokeswoman said.

Temasek said it expects the sale to be completed by end 2008 or early 2009.

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Maersk’s North Sea Oil, Gas Output Falls Year on Year in May

According to Rigzone:

AP Moller Maersk said oil production at its partly owned Dansk Undergrunds Consortium (DUC)’s 14 oil fields in the North Sea totaled 265,500 barrels per day during May, down 12 percent from a year earlier.

The production of gas reached 501 million cubic meters, down 35 percent from a year earlier.

AP Moller Maersk owns 39 percent of DUC while Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron hold 46 percent and 15 percent, respectively, of the consortium.

RB Boersen news agency said AP Moller Maersk’s Oil & Gas division has increasingly invested in locations outside of Denmark, such as Qatar, due to the falling production trend in its North Sea fields.

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