My friends are asking me what can really earn money in the future, I am not a investor so I have to find out. I queried one friend of mine who is a trader himself and he recommended the following…
Lowem Quote:
I will put $$ into gold silver uranium oil natural gas nickel steel molybdenum zinc copper and maybe even lithium….
I myself have not invested yet and not very sure how bad when TSHTF (The Shix Hits The Fan).
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In view of rising cost of oil stated in the previous news article that created pretty much screwed up agriculture for our future. The only solution to this is urban farming within your own back yard.
There are several ways of doing your own Urban farms but I haven’t personally been successful yet currently.
1. Soil Indoor Farming – using pots and soil the old fashion ways. I had tested Singapore soil down stairs and it sucks big time. It is muddy and yellowish and completely infertile to grow any edible fruits or vegetables in pots! I tried it indoor and the sunlight is really bad.
2. Hydroponics Vegetable & Herb Garden – According to the website, this baby can help you grow a healthy vegetables indoor without soil and it’s almost totally automatic!
Will update more when I do some DIY testing of growing indoor 
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According to Trinidad News:
At one time the need for more food resulted in the worldwide increase in arable land via the clearing of forests and irrigation of arid land. The land available has peaked and is decreasing because of salination of irrigated soils, diversion to bio-fuels and the growth of cities. Cheap fossil fuels allowed pumping of water for irrigation, and cheap food transport encouraged the growth of cities away from the centres of food production.
The economies of scale of large farms added to the growth of urbanisation. Cheap fossil fuels increased the ability of the farmer via mechanisation to till large areas of land, dramatically increasing the loss of top soil via water and wind erosion. Global warming, in part caused by fossil fuel use, also reduces food production yields.
Grain production in 2004 was of the order of 2 billion tonnes but with a growing and more sophisticated population production is falling short of consumption and stocks are being drawn down. The amount of crops lost to pests is increasing since immune pests are evolving faster than new pesticides can be invented. More importantly, Peak Oil, increasing demand for petroleum over-production, will make transportation, the operation of machinery and the production of petroleum-based fertilisers much more expensive, all contributing to a crisis in agriculture. Today the food production system consumes ten times the amount of fossil fuel energy as the energy in the food itself. With the coming decline in oil production, its increasing demand and its subsequent scarcity and high price, how will we be able to support the present world and regional populations?
There are two schools of thought on the way ahead – further intensification of food production via genetic engineering of new crops and animal varieties, and ecological agriculture which is criticised as being unable to feed the massive human population without chemical support. Since fossil fuels will come to an end sometime, we have to find a food production system that is much less energy intensive.
Cuban farmers were highly dependent on fuel and petrochemicals from the Soviet Union. With that country’s collapse Cuba lost all of its imports and faced the same crisis in agriculture that is now before us. Malnutrition in Cuba was widespread and that country’s GDP fell by 85 per cent. The Cuban authorities broke up the large state farms, distributed the land to farming families and encouraged the formation of small co-ops.
Tractors were replaced by oxen and Cuban scientists developed biological pest control methods and soil fertility enhancements. The government sponsored widespread education in organic food production and encouraged people to stay on the land by increasing earnings even above that of urban office workers. Gardens and the rearing of small animals were encouraged in the cities. Cuba’s energy consumption per capita is now one twentieth of that of the US and food production has now returned to 90 per cent of its pre-crisis level.
T&T produces oil and gas which are expected with reserves depletion to become too expensive to exploit within the next 15 to 20 years. Conforming to product specialisation, again dependent on cheap fuel transport, T&T exports energy products and imports much of its food from the rents earned. Already food prices are increasing due to the increasing international energy prices, demand for food and to the high liquidity of the TT dollar in the local economy. Local subsidised energy prices will have no impact on the world phenomenon of increasing prices of imported food.
We have to grow more food. Our experience with steel down- streamers suggests that the production of fertilisers by foreign direct investors in T&T will not mean cheaper fertilisers to local farmers. T&T will have no alternative but to follow in Cuba’s footsteps and develop an agricultural industry that moves progressively away from energy intensive techniques into small family lots and co-ops. We note approvingly that Caroni lands are being divided up into small family lots but are concerned about the intention to create large farms with the help of the Cubans. One can only hope that given Cuba’s experience and expertise these farms will not be fossil fuel intensive.
Agriculture in T&T will have to attract many to farming and our best brains at UWI and UTT to centres of excellence to help solve the problems of this kind of agriculture. Farmers’ earnings will have to be improved and maybe there is a case here for initially subsidising farmers instead of gasoline to drivers. We require 390,000 hectares of farm land to support our population. With only 15 per cent of T&T’s arable land (170,000 hectares) irrigated we cannot be self-sufficient in food. Possibly via Caricom we may have to address this regionally and make Guyana the bread basket of the region.
- What about Singapore????
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According to Peakoil.com Forums:
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| Mazabuka in Southern Province has been hit by a critical shortage of diesel.
A survey at all the four filling stations in the town revealed that only petrol was being sold |
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| The need to ration gas in OPEC’s second largest exporter of crude oil reveals a major vulnerability of Iran’s theocratic regime. |
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| Buenos Aires, Jul 2 (Prensa Latina) The Argentine government announced a multi-million dollar penalty on transnational Shell Oil on Monday for shortage of fuel supplies, and may bring company executives to court. |
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| After days of acute fuel shortage, the Kathmandu valley was Tuesday hit with its worst crisis in history as the state-owned petroleum importer and distributor reached the lowest level of fuel stocks and stopped supplies to gas stations.
‘Kathmandu valley now has just 300 kilolitres of petroleum,’ said Bishwanath Goyal, managing director of Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC). ‘This is the minimum mandatory stock we have to keep. We can’t sell any of it.’ |
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| £1 A LITRE FOR PETROL
July 7,2007 PETROL prices are set to smash the £1-a-litre barrier for the first time, drivers were warned last night. Soaring demand for fuel and a shortage of crude oil is threatening to push pump prices to record levels. |
Nicaragua: Energy Crisis Rears its Ugly Head
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| With an energy deficit hovering between 20-30% of the nation’s demand, embattled power-distribution company Union Fenosa in mid-June began again implementing rolling blackouts across the country, shutting down whole cities for 6-10 hours at a time.
Some offices in Managua, faced with morning blackouts that make production impossible, changed their nine-to-five work schedules to 2-8 p.m. |
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| The cost of flying to Flinders Island could go up if a critical shortage of aviation gas on the island is not resolved soon.
Airlines of Tasmania has had to restrict the number of passengers it carries because it can no longer refuel on the island |
Interesting to see the different reactions in each of the countries to the problem:
Zambia: “We don’t know what happened and we don’t know when it will get better”
Iran: “Riots and looting at the gas stations”
Nepal: “Scuffles at the gas pumps”
Argentina: “Find the facists in charge and fine them”
Brazil faces near-term electricity shortage
Nicaragua slashes gov’t working hours
Argentina Offers Tariff-Free Diesel Imports Up To 300,000CM
Brazil clears Bolivia to divert natgas to Argentina
Albania: Blackouts to start again in September
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| State power monopoly KESH reported recently that the country would suffer long blackout hours in September due to insufficient levels of domestic production and the lower levels of imports, which would not guarantee normal supply.
“We have a deficit of 800 millions KWh and this deficit will be covered by blackouts”, a KESH official said. |
Zambia’s Indeni refinery stocks depleted, now using reserves
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| Zambia’s sole oil refinery is working from reserves after running out of fuel stocks amid growing energy demand, an industry official told Dow Jones Newswires Monday. |
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| The government has responded to the emerging diesel crisis by announcing its intention to discourage people from using the fuel. Algerian experts recommended at a ‘study day’ on July 7th that the government introduce measures to encourage the consumption of alternative fuels such as liquefied petroleum gas and natural gas, in combination with more stringent vehicle efficiency and emissions regulations, a tax regime on diesel vehicles, the development of other transport methods for passengers and goods, and the use of solar energy in rural areas. |
More Energy Shortage Reports at my friend’s blog (LOWEM WEBLOG)
Constant updating on location that have energy shortages at Piggly Peak Blogspot
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According to Yahoo!Asia News:
TEHRAN (Reuters) – Iran does not expect OPEC to discuss changing output levels at its next regular meeting in Vienna in September, Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri-Hamaneh was quoted as saying on Sunday.
“Crude oil price fluctuations are related to geopolitical issues and a shortage of gasoline in America, and I do not imagine that, at its next regular annual meeting, OPEC would put the issue of changing its output level on the agenda,” he was quoted as saying by the Iranian oil ministry’s Web site Shana.
“There is a long time until then but if the market situation remains as now Iran will not have the view to increase production,” Vaziri-Hamaneh said.
He also said the amount of oil reserves and production was high and that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would therefore not hold an emergency meeting before the Vienna meeting.
The oil price has surged over the past month to near-record highs over $78 as supply concerns helped draw investor interest.
On Friday, U.S. oil jumped more than 2 percent to its second-highest settlement on record as supply concerns and signs of U.S. economic growth helped counter worries about falling stock markets.
OPEC countries, including its second-largest producer Iran, have repeatedly said the oil market does not lack crude and have blamed the surge in prices on inadequate refining capacity, political issues and other factors.
- IRAN seems to like the idea of OPEC not boosting it’s oil production to relax the market…hmmm
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According to Yahoo!News:
NEW YORK – Oil prices closed over $77 a barrel, near an all-time high on Friday on technical buying and news of faster-than-expected economic growth.
At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices fell to their lowest level since late May.
A Commerce Department report on Friday showed the economy grew by 3.4 percent in the second quarter, removing some of the concerns about economic growth that sent oil prices down Thursday in sympathy with Wall Street‘s plunge.
But some analysts discounted the economic growth numbers as a factor in Friday’s rally, noting that the government data was released hours before prices took off. Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Ill., said technical buying by large investment funds — or predetermined decisions to buy when prices reach certain levels — fueled Friday’s price surge.
“We’ve got a highly charged market here, and it doesn’t take much of a headline to spark a 5 percent price move,” said Ritterbusch.
Light, sweet crude for September delivery rose $2.07 to settle at $77.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The highest-ever settlement price for a front-month contract was $77.03 a barrel, set July 14, 2006.
Concerns about lower economic growth drove Thursday’s sell-off on Wall Street, when the Dow Jones industrials closed down more than 310 points, analysts said. Oil prices fell 93 cents on Thursday in sympathy with the stock market, analysts said.
Oil’s rally pulled the rest of the energy complex higher on Friday. August gasoline rose 2.58 cents to settle at $2.1017 a gallon after falling earlier.
Nymex heating oil futures added 4.03 cents to settle at $2.0731 a gallon, and natural gas futures rose 16.7 cents to settle at $6.11 per 1,000 cubic feet.
- Something to ponder about in the weekends!
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According to Elliott Wave International: There’s plenty more where those came from, suffice to say, where the mainstream “experts” saw a clear set-up for “Peak Oil,” the extreme psychology saw to a major “Peak” in prices. In case you’ve forgotten: After setting an all-time record high on July 14, 2006, oil took step one DOWN of a six-month long sell-off that slashed 31% off its value before hitting an 18-month low in mid-January, 2007. Now, flash ahead to the Crude Oil Repeak of July 2007 where one recent news source steps on board the bullish bandwagon with this golden ticket: “$100 oil may be only a few months away.”(International Herald Tribune ). Which means the time is just right for Elliott Wave International’s Daily Futures Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy to revisit Crude Oil AND present a newly updated chart of the market in the July 20 edition of his Weekly Wrap-Up. See the full story today via a risk-free subscription. - You can see the very reasons why this articles actually quoted a couple of news about peak oil while talking about oil prices…yes even I can predict that oil prices will bounce back during the recent dip due to profit taking and other “reasons” however now all eyes will look at the direction of any actions from OPEC to boost the oil supply output but almost nobody believe that it will materialize….
“Get set for $80. Producers and consumers alike should get used to the fact that oil prices will likely never fall below $60 a barrel again.” (DJ MarketWatch )
“Oil at $100? It’s no longer a pipe dream.” (NBC5.com )
“Oil will soar well over $100 and stay high as part of a sustained commodities bull run that has another 15 years to run.” (Reuters )
“Oil costing $200: Is a Crisis Brewing?” (Bloomberg )
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According to theedgedaily.com:
Singapore Airlines (SIA) is increasing the fuel surcharge on tickets issued on or after Aug 2 for both Singapore Airlines and Silkair flights to all destinations. The surcharge increase ranges from US$2 (RM6.80) to US$9 depending on the sectors, SIA said in a statement on July 27. SIA is increasing the surcharge by US$9 to US$98 (from US$89) for flights between Singapore and the US and Canada. For flights between Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, Bandar Seri Begawan, Denpasar, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Manila and Penang, the surcharge will be increased by US$2 to US$22. For other flights, the surcharge has been raised US$5 to US$63. It said the increase was due to the “sustained escalation in the price of jet fuel in recent months”. “The price of jet fuels is now hovering around US$90 per barrel, compared to US$81 per barrel when the surcharge was last revised in May. The light crude oil for delivery in September was trading around US$75 for September delivery on Nymex, up from US$60 in mid-February. This is the third time this year that SIA have hiked up their fuel surcharges amidst escalating fuel prices. The last hike was in May when fuel prices were at $81 per barrel SIA is not the only airlines to be increasing fuel surcharges. Thai Airways is another carrier in the region to have increased surcharges by up to US$10 on most flights The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects this to be a worldwide phenomenon as jet fuel prices hit US$91 per barrel this week.
- When the all the airline starts to raise their fuel surcharges the new marketing for them will be Fly With Us! Guarantee Lowest Ticket Price Conditions Apply** The ticket price does not include the on board stewardess, there will be no food or drinks allowed on the plane and none will be provided, toilets are locked during the whole flight unless is extremely urgent, there will be spoiled or missing life jackets under your seat and if you cannot find yours share with others, there won’t be any crash landing instructions because we will self destruct with any signs of engine problems. Cost of tickets $100, Fuel Surcharges $888 Excluding GST Tax Any luggage heavier then 12.5 Kg will be charge additional $10 per grams. See you soon!
This silly premonition of the future might just be nonsense rant but what can be further away from the truth of higher crude oil price will cause higher cost of traveling overseas. Those products you are using such as the very computer you are using may be imported thousands of miles away from China etc. traveling using planes or tankers…the cost will go up. The future cost of traveling and hike in prices is not a prediction but reality of the future.
The ways to avoid or sustain such inflation or hike in cost are either painful cutting cost or inflating price of your product and services and earn more as well.
There are few groups of people may not have the hint of what is coming and still trying out that death wish of price warring with competitors and may eventually create a stagnant growth for that particular industry.
The crucial question now is, with higher price will come higher production of oil supply? Does money really can increase oil supply in the long run or is it just the illusion of man that money can buy sustainability? The possibility is prolong hike in prices that create an economic recession that created the demand destruction by natural selection. The fittest or the most well prepared stay alive.
The next wave or trend is to find innovative ways to collaborate and work at home or on the move. Wireless technology are already in the market to tap on the internet. The work that most people in the IT, Accounting, Finance, Call Centre, Help Desk, Shopping, Ordering, Invoices, Graphical Design, Gaming, Research and Development, Surveys and many other sectors can be done via internet.
The problem is very fundamental, discipline. The lure of the next youtube movie of “Little Britain” or that MMORPG game that you had been too busy to increase the level to buy that much awaited dream Sword with Dragon Hit Points…or simply waste time with another DVD that hasn’t been time to watch….all at the privacy of you own home.
Naturally the productivity will go down to hell and business cannot sustain. The only way to combat low discipline employees might be either constant monitoring via Messenger (Skype Video, MSN, YAHOO) but it’s not practical to have it on to all employees at the same time or you can pass a percentage of the company’s profit to the employees as shares. Different employees hold a pay % of the company and have different levels of experiences and KPI can get different level of pay %. Just like a RPG game, the more work you do and more projects completed will earn you credits and points. The Manager or Boss can issue profits (income minus expenses incurred) to the % shared among workers using fund transfer or Paypal.
If the company’s success is part of the pay of the employee’s own success may also means bigger pay pocket for the better performance just like the RPG game!
Each player can get missions selection (job scope) and employers coordinates mission giving, sourcing, awarding and monitoring. The mission completion will add a portfolio of the success of the “mission” or project to the employee by either the customer, boss, manager or all.
The controller of the mission also hold % of the pay structure so that it’s transparent to all employee the total amount earn and control the company’s expense column. The company may also have a magician to control the Income tax for the company.
If the world of home based/mobile jobs starts to take off a new trend of services will emerge such as solar charger for laptops, extra light batteries, solar bags(already exist).
There are several industry might be hit hard by this trend such as the tourism industry, shopping centers and food centers. These will need to innovate into express delivery on demand via online ordering industry.
Food can be ordered and paid online and be delivered (solar van) by the nearest outlet and tourism can be transformed into solar charging cafe points for laptop mobile workers on the road.
Urban farmers might be the highest paid in the country after imports of food inflate to unreasonable amount. The farmer might provide basic food supply at lower cost due to locality and no preservative. There are possible to reach the customer within a day of plucking that vegetable off that rows of vertical farms from all apartment corridors.
The rest of the world might be in chaotic riots or even war but with a strong and united community in a small country, Singapore might have a chance to surviving the energy crisis of the future. (Have to be optimistic yah?)
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NYMEX Crude Oil Chart is provided by 321energy.com and there are several articles that might interest the energy trackers and investors. The chart above might have slight delay on the real oil prices but it’s cool indicator of the trend. You can also got directly to NYMEX for their chart in Crude Oil Prices.
See Also:
Free Live Crude Oil Prices (NYMEX) (Recommended)
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Ever since I started researching on the future energy crisis via the journey I conveniently place on the right side of my page, I realized that the future of the world including my small resource poor country are in a very serious psychological dilemma in regards to the pending energy crisis.
There are several types of people, one the economist or optimist will consistently deny any doom to the world and think of creative ideas to be profitable during the down turn. Investing in the right stocks or shares when the price is “low” will make you rich if the market becomes “high” again.
The Politicians will say they are pouring money into R&D and technology with alternative energy will come and save the day! Fear not and continue with your life!
The Leftist or Conservative always counter that and says we need to be realistic and prepare for whatever comes our way and with a large scare protest can make the government make it “right”
The Doomer will say, it’s no use the economic is doomed to stagflation (No Growth with High Inflation) and without cheap oil the world will go back to pre-industrial age with little or no capability to sustain the current over populated Earth with enough food, electricity, water and money.
For Me I am a 10% optimist + 30% Politician +30% Conservative +30% Doomer. I plan to find possible solutions to present to the world the simple and affordable way to sustain life. I am on a quest to find solutions to “save the world”.
The first quest will consist of the few key elements.
1. Electricity
I had securely rigged up a few solar panels to my HDB windows to charge some batteries. You can see on the left is my first 12 Volts (DC) 10 Watts Small solar panels which was my first taste of using renewable energy! I had since bring one 20Watt and a big brother 40W panel to join in Green and Clean Solar Brotherhood of my window! 
This 64 bulbs LED (Light Emitting Diode) can bend and shape according to what you want and as you can see it’s pretty too! My living room are much more romantic compared to the AC counterpart!
Solar Charged Batteries connected with a Inverter (DC to AC) can even used to see TV, Charge laptop & Hand Phones.
It’s strange we all had taken electricity for granted as almost all of us can afford the electricity now. So with a sigh, I can only do this project alone with the only reasons is to go green and environmentally friendly to avoid ridicule. Another good thing is that my batteries are handy during any black out in Singapore! If you have seen the movie Die Hard 4.0, you will know what I mean ya! Do Check back here for more of my old and new projects that I will be doing for the sake of sustainability in a urban “desert” during the energy crisis. (Yes, just received a mail stating the subsidies on electricity for 5 years! Even the Government are ready for the crisis….)
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