According to Antara News:

Jakarta (ANTARA News) – State oil company PT Pertamina will raise the price of non-subisdized oils for industry by between 2.9 and 6.4 percent as of November 1.

Under the decree of the company`s director of marketing and commerce number Kpts 681/F00000/2007 dated October 30, the price of premium gasoline will be increased by 3,4 percent, kerosene 3,4 percent, automotive diesel oil 3,7 percent, industrial diesel oil 2,9 percent, and marine fuel oil 6,4 percent.

“The hike follows the rise of Mid Oil Platts Singapore by 5.3 to 9.3 percent,” ANTARA News learned here on Wednesday.

The oil benchmark price in Singapore rose because of pressure from the rupiah that had strengthened 2.7 percent from last month.

The price of subsidized fuel oils for public transportation, households and micro-businesses remained at Rp4,500 for premium gasoline, Rp4,300 for automotive diesel oil and Rp2,000 for kerosene.

The price of special fuels such as Pertamax and Pertamaxplus, Pertamina dex and biopertamax also remained unchanged in November following the decision of the company`s director of marketing and commerce number 652/F00000/2007-SO dated September 27.(*)

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According to Bloomberg:

Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) — China unexpectedly increased fuel prices by as much as 10 percent in an “urgent step” to help the nation’s oil refiners cover surging costs as crude touched records above $96 a barrel.

To “guarantee domestic refined oil supply and promote energy conservation,” gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices will rise 500 yuan ($67) a metric ton starting today, the National Development and Reform Commission said late yesterday. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Asia’s largest refiner, surged in Hong Kong and Shanghai trading.

China controls fuel prices to limit their impact on inflation in the world’s most-populous nation. The commission, China’s top economic planner, said in September there would be no energy price increases this year because inflation was exceeding a government target.

“It’s a prudent measure — to let businesses and consumers face the real price of oil,” said David Cohen, an economist at Action Economics in Singapore. “China’s probably the biggest source of pressure on global oil prices, because of its surge in demand.”

September’s inflation fell to 6.2 percent from an almost 11-year high of 6.5 percent in the previous month as food-price gains slowed. That decline may have led government officials to believe they had room to move on energy prices, Cohen said.

Sinopec’s Loss

Sinopec, as Beijing-based China Petroleum is known, this week posted a third-quarter loss from turning crude into gasoline and diesel as it strains to supply the second-largest energy market at below-cost prices. Sinopec jumped as much as 11 percent to HK$12.90 in Hong Kong and by 8.9 percent to 27.35 yuan in Shanghai.

Benchmark gasoline prices will rise 9.1 percent and diesel by 9.96 percent, the commission said in its statement. Fuel retailers are able to sell products 8 percent above or below the state-determined levels.

The Chinese government will also increase prices for natural gas, excluding that used for fertilizer, by an unspecified amount at a future date, the commission said.

The higher fuel prices will add 0.05 percentage point to China’s monthly inflation figure, the commission said today. “We will strictly limit the impact of increasing fuel prices,” the commission said in a statement on its Web site.

Record Oil

Crude oil for December delivery gained as much as $1.71, or 1.8 percent, to $96.24 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since trading began in 1983.

“At crude prices of $80 a barrel, China’s refiners would make a loss of 1,000 yuan to process every ton of oil into fuels,” the commission said in a statement last night. “Some refineries have halted production due to the losses, putting heavy pressure on market supplies.”

The price increase is an “urgent step” to stimulate production and ensure supply, the commission said.

Sinopec’s parent, China Petrochemical Corp., said yesterday it will run its refineries at full capacity in November, bearing “heavy losses” in a bid to ensure adequate fuel supplies. Sinopec Group has halted most diesel and gasoline exports since the start of the second half to meet domestic demand, it said.

Sinopec posted a loss of 5.3 billion yuan ($709 million) from processing oil in the third quarter because of rising crude costs and government price caps.

`Increased Pressure’

The refusal by some non state-owned retail filling stations to sell oil products has increased pressure on Sinopec to ensure adequate supplies to the market, Chief Financial Officer Dai Houliang said in Hong Kong on Oct. 30.

China is trying to tame energy consumption without disrupting the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Fees for railway, airplane and other transport services will need to be adjusted because of the price increase, the commission said.

The pace of economic growth and changes in fuel subsidies in China and India are two of five main issues that will determine the outlook for the oil market in coming years, the International Energy Agency said. Subsidies in the two nations amount to about $15 billion a year.

“China and India will dominate oil demand growth estimates” in the next few years, Fatih Birol, chief economist at the IEA said at a conference in London yesterday. “The pace of Chinese economic growth is a huge uncertainty.”

The other three issues are oilfield decline rates, the possibility for alternatives to oil as a transportation fuel and whether international oil companies will become “niche” operators compared with national companies, he said.

- Now, hopefully the fuel prices increases are incremental in steps instead of a single hike…as human nature cannot handle the fact that oil prices had increased and need time to adjust to this inflation.

Burma get themselves in trouble when they double the fuel prices overnight which is inconsiderate and dangerous. The outcome of that hike is almost assured without proper information and education, their censorship to outside news might also contribute to the lack of understanding of external factors involved in the hike of fuel.

China have long been censorship of information including blogspot blogs and other news websites, the lack of knowledge of the clear and present danger of external factors concerning the hike in oil prices may contribute to the civilian to start blaming the government instead of understanding and take painful conservation measures to mitigate into the post peak oil world.

If people ignore the call for renewable energy and lack of will to conserve the use of energy, the only result will be loss of confidence in the economy and will start to panic about the future. The wold cannot afford to have a unstable China that manufactured majority of our products including computers, household products, toys and electronics.

Be prepared to cut the use of electricity, oil and gas or pay the ultimate price of ignorance.

According to NYMEX.COM:

Watching my previous prediction of $95 to suddenly materialize infront of me is scary……The future is going to be more uncertain.

The only pattern I see now is panic buying and selling, investors doing under due influences of greed and fear. Every rebound is higher then the previous record.

What I can predict is a sudden drop in oil prices temporarily to profit taking to as low as $78 to $80 then another huge spike above unseen levels of above $100.

The factors might be demand/supply, geopolitical, supply disruption, war, fed rates cuts, collapse of stocks or many unknown factors such as panic buying and selling.

The consequences will be hyper inflation and civil unrest.

According to cnbc.com:

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil rallied to a record $94 a barrel on Wednesday after weekly data showed U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly slumped by 3.9 million barrels, countering expectations for an increase.

U.S. oil futures rose $2.89 to $93.27 a barrel by 1616 GMT, off lows of $88.92, on top of a $4 slide in the previous session.

London Brent gained $2.49 to $89.93.

Commercial stockpiles of crude oil in the United States fell by 3.9 million barrels to 312.7 million barrels in the week ended October 26, said the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Analysts had forecast a rise of 600,000 barrels in a Reuters poll.

“I am very surprised, the crude number is insanely bullish, it’s a big drop, for the second week in a row,” said Mike Wittner, global head of oil research at SocGen in London.

Supplies of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, were up 800,000 barrels at 135.3 million barrels, defying expectations for a 500,000-barrel decline.

Gasoline inventories rose 1.3 million barrels to 195.1 million barrels, countering projections for a drawdown of 100,000 barrels.

Oil prices may ease off over the next few days after investors who sold on Tuesday have covered their positions, said Tom James, head of commodities trading at Liquid Capital Markets in London.

“It’s a short-covering rally triggered by the fall in stocks,” James said. “With any other news, I would expect the market should come back off again.”

– These “analyst” ought to be sacked… Sometimes they are too politically correct to avoid panic but the truth cannot be place better in the face of depleting resources. Anymore drop in stockpiles dues to OPEC “inability” to raise output or “unwillingness” to raise supply may cause more spikes in oil prices in future.

The next prediction will be a temporary drop in oil prices and even greater spikes…my previous prediction on the oil price to reach USD$95 by the end of this October is a near miss by $1 which is pretty close indeed.

According to cnbc.com:

RIO DE JANERIO, Brazil – A state court ordered on Wednesday ordered Brazil’s state-run oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA to resume natural gas supplies, a day after the firm began reducing gas flows to distributors and industries.

Petrobras said it reduced the gas flows in the country’s two largest cities to meet a rising demand by thermoelectric power plants that had been ordered online in response to a recent drought.

Although the reservoir levels aren’t critical, regulators said they wanted to spare some of the dams’ capacity to avoid possible future bottlenecks.

But the court said in a statement a reduction in the gas supply would “harm the entire economy” and cause “an unprecedented collapse of urban order.“

The court decision does not affect gas supplies to Sao Paulo, Brazil’s largest city and the countries industrial and financial center.

The gas shortage was readily apparent in Rio de Janeiro, where a good portion of the taxi cab fleet runs on natural gas. Local newspapers showed pictures of drivers pushing their cabs from station to station in search of fuel.

The reduction in the gas supply also reportedly affected a number of industries in Rio de Janeiro state.

- I guess the reliance on natural gas seems similar to Oil…Natural Gas may not be the answer to Oil after all.

According to Guardian Unlimited:

Electricity shortages and gas supply problems predicted to push bills up
Britain faces the prospect of power shortages and soaring prices this winter after the National Grid warned of a shortfall in electricity-generating capacity yesterday.

The alert coincides with a surge in gas prices, which are now 40% higher than in continental Europe, and the confirmation that a vital import plant in South Wales will not be operational this winter.

And it emerged last night that the energy minister, Malcolm Wicks, met power providers and users last week to discuss mounting concerns that the UK was heading into another winter of soaring prices and power shortages, similar to the one that forced some manufacturers to shut down capacity 24 months ago.
The warning by the Grid, which operates the pylons and other parts of the electricity transmission system, came days after it reassured ministers that an earlier alert was nothing to worry about and that there were no expectations of power blackouts this winter.

The fragility of the country’s power infrastructure is partly the result of a series of breakdowns at the UK’s ageing nuclear reactors. It is an embarrassment to the government, which has often insisted that two years of price peaks and insecurity would end in 2007 as Britain benefited from extra investment in pipelines and import facilities.

But yesterday the Grid carried a “transmission system warning” on its website calling for an extra 300 megawatts of capacity to ensure sufficient slack in the electricity supply system between the peak periods of 1600 GMT and 1930 GMT, when homeowners put the kettle on, turn on the television and make supper.

The company issued a similar warning on October 19 but insisted yesterday that these were precautionary and did not mean there was any immediate risk of a power cut. “This is just a tool to ensure we can deal with the unexpected. It is a normal part of the market working and not a reason for concern,” said a spokesman.

Jeremy Nicholson, director of the Major Energy Users Council who attended the talks, said everyone had been caught by surprise by a recent 30% surge in the forward price of electricity and gas. “We are all trying to understand why the supply situation looked fairly good and yet prices have suddenly shot up.”

The surge in wholesale prices is likely to encourage suppliers to pass on the burden to domestic users. Mark Todd, a spokesman for energyhelpline.com, which helps customers switch suppliers, says his contacts have told him to expect a 10% rise in gas and electricity bills after Christmas.

Gas is used directly by many of the steel, chemicals and paper manufacturers represented by Mr Nicholson but is also used to generate power to provide electricity. Gas prices are heavily influenced by the value of oil, which this week hit record levels of $93 a barrel, and also by availability.

A liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant being built by BG, formerly part of British Gas, at Milford Haven in South Wales, was expected to be finished this year but yesterday the company said industrial action by contractor staff and other difficulties had pushed back its completion to 2008 with “no definite date yet for opening“.

Sources close to the company said there was no chance of the facility being able to bring in shiploads of LNG from Qatar to meet peak demand this winter.

There has also been uncertainty over the amount of gas coming into the market this winter from Norway’s Ormen Lange field in the North Sea. The Langeled pipeline linking the field with an import plant at Easington, east Yorkshire, was opened last year and is taking some gas but it is unclear when it will be at full capacity.

- Britain is in possible energy crisis soon if they cannot find alternative energy soon to diversify the energy sources to generate electricity. Sound pretty familiar to me that LNG Plant are being built in Britain to import “shiploads of LNG from Qatar” Sound similar to what Singapore is going to do and the target date is way later…

What will be the future price for electricity? You can make a calculated guess.

According to Yahoo!News:

BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s worst fuel crisis in two years spread to the capital and other inland areas by Wednesday, and one man was killed in a brawl at a petrol station queue, upping pressure on the government to intervene.

Diesel shortages in China’s political heart, which escaped previous supply crunches unscathed, highlight tensions between the government and its increasingly independent oil firms about who should pay for the country’s generous fuel subsidies.

Top refiner Sinopec on Wednesday pledged more supplies and bought additional diesel fuel abroad, but it may fall to Beijing to end the stand-off by raising domestic prices, easing taxes, promising another year-end pay-off — or simply strong-arming suppliers into selling more fuel at a loss.

- The crisis is spreading rapidly as more and more angry people gather at gas stations and unless the diesel starts to come in fast…more people are going to be fighting for their life for the “black gold” of life.

With Oil Price just shoot back above US$93 within 10 minutes?…We shall see more panic selling and buying of trading in the near hours or days ahead.

Correct that…it’s US$94 now…

I just switched on to NYMEX.Com and witness a totally different figure that I saw this afternoon. This afternoon shows that the oil price dropped almost US$3 to US$88.92 from the highest of US$93.

NOW, at this moment in time…it’s like something had just happened and it’s not in the news yet…but the sudden spike back to US$93.25 within just few seconds shows the symptom of panic buying….

This is just going to be a wild wild day!!

According to Antara:

New Delhi (ANTARA News/Asia Pulse) – Indian Oil Corp (BSE:530965), India’s largest refiner, on Tuesday sought an increase in prices of petrol, diesel, domestic LPG and PDS kerosene as spiralling global oil prices had put “enormous” burden and may result in a revenue loss of over Rs 85 billion (US$2.2 billion) this fiscal year.

“The government had taken a decision of sharing the burden of rising international oil prices equally between the oil companies, government and the consumers. I want the burden sharing mechanism to be implemented… let the consumers pay,” IOC chairman Sarthak Behuria told a news conference here.

He said IOC was currently losing Rs 960 million on petrol, diesel, domestic LPG and PDS kerosene sales.

Source:
Business in Asia Today – Oct. 31, 2007
published by Asia Pulse

- If the hike in the price of oil are passed to consumer gradually and small increment but higher frequency then maybe it will not end up with a crisis similar to Burma which doubled the cost of fuel overnight without due planning and consideration of consequences!!

If you are in India…take note!!