I am almost shaking in my pants just now as the oil prices shot towards the sky for awhile from the lowest $36.94 per barrel to highest $45.54 per barrel in a short span of time.
Oil may rebound next year to average $60 a barrel as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries makes record production cuts to counter the deepest economic slump since World War II, according to the median of estimates by 33 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
That would be a 45 percent gain from today’s price.
- These news analyst should be taken with a grain of salt where they don’t know what is the “FUTURE” price may be as there won’t be a floor or ceiling in oil trading.
You may be seeing oil drop below critical levels for oil industry to start their own wars to slice and dice supplies to boost oil prices artificially…or see oil prices shoot towards HEAVEN without limits!
Most news are pure speculation and never with certainty of their “maybe” scenario and probably will be 90% wrong.
For me…I think the future is VERY fucking volatile…with many spikes and corrections….stay well away if you can…otherwise…stay AWAKE while you trade.
Sometimes health maybe more important than greed….that may burn you alive.
“the price for Ukraine should amount to $418 per 1,000 cubic metres” says chief executive officer Alexei Miller during the talks with Ukrainian officials in Moscow.
Let me remind you that the current price that Ukraine is paying Russia for 1,000 cubic metres of Natural gas is now only 179.5 dollars.
The Gazprom spokeswoman said company specialists were being told to be at work over the New Year’s night if the company management decided to cut gas to Ukraine.
The Russian gas giant maintains that Naftogaz owesRussia more than 2.1 billion dollars [2] for gas delivered in November and December and fines for late payment.
It’s known previously that Ukraine’s economy is now in terrible mess and should not be in any condition to repay the debt to Russia and this means that Ukraine may faced the stark realities of a VERY VERY COLD WINTER this coming 1st January 2009….
VIENNA, Austria – Tensions generated by a widening conflict between Israel and Palestinian militants sent crude prices up sharply to above $40 a barrel Monday, with gasoline and heating oil also making sizable gains.
Prices also were supported by indications that key OPEC members were acting on commitments to cut back production, in line with a decision earlier this month to take a daily 2.2 million barrels off the market.
“There could be fear that an escalating Middle East conflict could disrupt supplies, though I don’t see that happening at this point,” said Gerard Rigby, energy analyst with Fuel First Consulting in Sydney. “(Israel-Palestinian conflict) always causes a bit of a blip and is one component that could support prices short-term.”
- The sharp mini-spike in oil prices today is a small taste of what is to come when there is REALLY a disruption in oil supplies.
What is money? It’s just printed money on demand…to Governments of the world who wanted to sustain their countries….what is the limit of oil prices when the real disruption happens?
Who knows? Maybe God will tell you….money is greed and evil of all things.
Thousands of Iranians, joined by high-ranking Iranian officials and military commanders, shouted “Down With USA” and “Down With Israel” in Tehran on Monday. Many carried banners reading “Israel must be wiped off the face of the earth” and “We should all rise and destroy Israel.”
I purposefully enlarged some of the text to make a statement on the predicament that the world now faced, Israel now had wrongfully chosen the wrong chess moves against the frequent small rocket fires from Gaza that had only killed small number of Israeli population.
Their move to escalates the violence with MORE violence clearly lacks of judgment and self control.
The brutal attack not only back fired from their “shock and awe” tactics to intimidate and force a complete cease firing of rockets from the Palestinian at Gaza to Israel, now the situation only got worsened to provide more serious problems for Israel in the long term.
What Israel should do is either do what the Hamas did and shoot back the same amount of small rockets back to Gaza but with more precision and accuracy to avoid real casualties which the Hamas managed to do perfectly to intimidate Israel for a fight.
The idea is nobody is going to complain about rocket fires from Israel that EQUAL the number of rockets from Gaza but with more precisions that can clearly intimidate the Hamas to bring in more firepower.
What the Israel did now is to fall into the most ancient “trap” by simple intimidation by small rocket fire and get caught by Muslim Nations’ wrath if Israel fights back….
What the Muslim Nations can do against Israel might be unimaginable in the global scale and might not be so good for the availability of oil…which brings us back to….another possible supply disruption either by voluntary supply cut by OPEC or by violent sabotages by angry people with no idea of the consequences.
Now Pakistan is praying hard for PEACE with India days after the Pakistan’s army chief began moving troops toward the rivals’ shared border as tensions rose over last month’s terror attacks on Mumbai.
Pakistan obviously trying to use the media at their favor by trying to “pretend” to be the victim and want PEACE but instead prepared for all out war at the border.
India may have someone in control that still sane enough to want to establish peace with Pakistan which both of them obviously wish to avoid a full war with their neighbor knowingly that both of them have the buttons ready to shoot tactical nuclear missile at each others’ major cities…
I believe both do not want millions of people to be vaporized in an instant…
Now the problems lies with escalation of violence MAY cause many countries of different sides to be at the tightest tension ever since World War 2 near Somalia where many countries had sent their navy ships (Destroyers?) to combat Somalia Piracy problems including key countries such as USA, Russia, Iran, China, Italy, Danish, French, Netherlands, Canada, Malaysia, India and more.
The possibility of a major show down is nearer then ever before but there is still chance for peace if all nations do a major publicity stunts to show global unity which is very unlikely after the fall out of the previous WTO meeting.
Does the world really want war during these economic recession or depression? What is the alternatives?….
What I feel is within the next month from January 18 2009 to February 21 2009 is going to be a turbulent period as Presidential Elect Obama takes the Oval Office on the 20th January 2009 and may be the first President to face with the ultimate decisions to the global fate within hours after taking office.
His priority may be the most difficult if things goes VERY WRONG this month….which may means going to war or negotiate for peace within hours.
The challenge for the world now maybe brace themselves with millions of angry Muslim population protesting against Israel and those countries that supports Israel like America in particular……the scary thing is the Muslim Nations in the middle east holds majority of the world oil supplies.
If they do another major oil embargo similar to the extent of 1973 OPEC Oil Crisis….or emulate the scenario portrayed in the fictional book titled “Last Light” by Alex Scarrow.
Reporting from Shaoxing, China — First, Tao Shoulong burned his company’s financial books. He then sold his private golf club memberships and disposed of his Mercedes S-600 sedan.
And then he was gone.
And just like that, China’s biggest textile dye operation — with four factories, a campus the size of 31 football fields, 4,000 workers and debts of at least $200 million — was history.
“We’re pretty much dead now,” said Mao Youming, one of 300 suppliers stiffed last month by Tao’s company, Jianglong Group. Lighting a cigarette in a coffee shop here, the 38-year-old spoke calmly about the bleak future of his industrial gas business. Tao owed him $850,000, Mao said, about 60% of his annual revenue. “We cannot pay our workers’ salaries. We are about to be bankrupt too.”
Government statistics show that 67,000 factories of various sizes were shuttered in China in the first half of the year, said Cao Jianhai, an industrial economics researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. By year’s end, he said, more than 100,000 plants will have closed.
- Dear all, this is probably one of the saddest moment in history the world will experience! Most of these workers will be immediately out of their jobs and return to their family without any compensation!
Imagine 100,000 factories to closed down without new jobs for these people! That may means millions will be out of jobs!
Imagine 1 million hungry workers with PHD or Master Degrees to board the next budget airlines to your country…and compete with your jobs and 1/10 of our salary range?
MOSCOW (AFP) – - There is a “50-50″ chance that Russia will cut off gas supplies to Ukraine on January 1 over Kiev’s failure to pay its debts, Russian energy giant Gazprom said on Saturday.
“I think it’s 50-50,” Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov told radio station Moscow Echo in an interview, when asked if Russia would cut gas deliveries or the two sides would clinch a last minute deal.
Gazprom says that Ukraine’s state gas company Naftogaz owes it over two billion dollars for gas delivered in November and December and fines for late payment.
Ukraine is a major transit country for Russian gas exports to the European Union and a dispute over gas prices led to a brief interruption of gas supplies in several EU countries in January 2006.
Gazprom has said it will fufill its obligations to Europe but has also warmed it cannot rule out disruptions to European supplies if Ukraine siphons off transit gas during a crisis.
- The above articles means that Ukraine may PLUNGE INTO TOTAL DARKNESS during the winter season coming 1st January “again”.
This spells dangers of millions of Ukraine people freezing to death if they find themselves without natural gas to heat their homes and cook their meals.
It had been done before and it now have “50 per cent” chance of happening again during this peak period for heating fuel.
Yes, Russia have their own ways to jack up the prices of the natural gas prices and this is just One of the ways…but anyone can blame them? The oil prices collapse had crippled their oil industry to a point that most likely many new projects for exploration may be halted indefinitely due to the “cost” issue.
Unless the oil prices goes back above $70 to $100 per barrel, Russia’s & Iran’s Economies including all oil producing countries economies may be temporary goes below water level and cause havoc to the whole industry of Big Oil.
Seriously, we might be seeing more supply cut and possible military tension brewing in the horizon but I like to remain optimistic and says we proceed with extra caution especially the region near Somalia where multinational Navy ships occupied a relatively small region.
Not much to add for now until 1st January 2009 and Belated
The above is just a peek into the world of peak oil that I had been researching for some time now, my attempts innovate for energy generators hit major road blocks and probably the world won’t survive into the next 50 years.
There might be still hope but it takes great will and strength of all humans left in this world after the fact of great disaster comes upon us to pull this through.
Money, wealth & power should be the least of your concern as when the world dissolve itself into anarchy and lawlessness…what’s the use of holding on to paper money printed illegally by your central banks or be the president of a company that makes “money” that devalues every single day…a.k.a. Zimbabwe money effects.
We should focus more on sustainability development on a global scale or at least within individual communities.
To convert urban car park into hydroponic vegetable gardens, chicken farm, solar panels & wind mills should be promoted with government incentives and tax breaks.
The world should not base on profit anymore but on sustainability or ability to sustain life without oil…
The effects of ultra cheap oil price now may be the result of some over ambitious plan by high politician or someone of big power to lower the previously record oil prices.
Their plan to lower the oil prices is very simple.
Ask for more oil from Saudi Arabia
Fail…then break the bubble of the property market using subprime
Fail…then break the financial bubble
Fail…then shut down a bank or….2
Fail…refuse to help the auto industry?
Apparently their actions may had triggered a domino effects on the financial markets which is exactly what President Bush mentioned to the Saudi if they don’t release more oil to the market to reduce supply tightness….
The result is Demand Destruction by economic bubble to be burst by high oil prices.
Then comes the latest total shocking oil supply cut by the OPEC countries in a way that the world have NO SAY to this at all and soon we shall be forced out of our addiction of oil by virtually NO OIL to use.
The cheap oil era may last only this long until the oil industry either goes bankrupt or CUT OIL SUPPLY TOTALLY…or simply uses protectionist policy by supplying only local markets instead of exporting to international markets.
HAVANA (Reuters) – A Russian warship sailed into Havana Bay on Friday for the first time since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union as Russia flexed its muscles close to the United States and showed off its warming relations with former Cold War ally Cuba.
The dark gray, anti-submarine destroyer Admiral Chabanenko fired its guns in salute as it sailed in from the Straits of Florida just 90 miles from the U.S. coast and was greeted with cannon fire from an old Spanish fort at the mouth of the bay.
Fishermen and tourists looked on from the waterfront as the Chabanenko, its sailors lined up on the deck, sailed through the narrow bay entrance.
After tugboats eased the ship into a dock opposite historic Old Havana, a Cuban military band welcomed it with martial music.
The destroyer, which is set to stay in Havana for five days, took part in recent joint exercises with the Venezuelan navy and stopped in at former ally Nicaragua before sailing to Cuba. It is accompanied by two supply ships.
The Chabanenko’s visit comes amid renewed diplomatic and economic relations between Cuba and Russia, which is increasing its presence in the Western Hemisphere amid rising tensions with Washington.
- It had probably began few months back with conflict with Georgia over South Ossetia or even further back.
The latest threats against Russia comes from USA for the building the missile defense system in eastern Europe and support for former Soviet republic Georgia in its recent conflict with Russia.
The equilibrium of power had always be maintained by the balance of nuclear armed intercontinental ballistic missile that both America & Russia have in abundance of and both used it for deterrence instead of bombing each other to kingdom “Gone”.
That equilibrium had been recently broken by the success of the missile defense system that shot down another missile in mid air and the installation of such defenses around eastern Europe means a big threat to Russia and it had forced Russia into another arms race.
No doubt Russia have his own ambitions to get all the Soviet era states back into Russia and they may do it by force if necessary or by giving citizens of another country Russian Passports.
To my personal perspective of the overall situation is …..that we are at the clear and present danger of our times….possibly pretty closed to World War 3.
Now Russian Destroyer had parked in Cuba….just 90 miles from the coast of U.S.A. may send a chill down any one’s spine.
The spark that caused the first full frontal attack may happen far away near Somalia at the Gulf Of Aden where a mass collection of international war ships had gathered or at least tried to patrol at that area to “prevent” any kinds of Somalia pirate attack.
They include the following countries that had sent war ships.
The most recent deployment of Navy Warships are IRAN & China which is fine if all these countries are very friendly with each other.
The most dangerous situation comes when WARSHIPS of UNFRIENDLY countries go SO CLOSE TOGETHER in a relatively “small” area where their RADAR & Missiles can easily destroy each other in a very very long distance.
Imagine the possibility of a VERY SMART Somalia Pirates to be able to hijack either America’s, Russian’s or Iranian’s smaller navy patrol boats and tried to fire upon other navy ships of countries that are currently VERY sensitive on the “first strike” trigger.
IF there is a conflict at the Gulf of Aden between warships of Russia & Iran vs USA navy either by mistake or friendly fire could very well trigger the simultaneous upgrade from orange to bright fucking RED emergency!
Russia may do the following
Tried to destroy any trace of the USA missile defense system installation or delivery.
Tried to move their military into South Ossetia again and into firing position on oil pipelines
Tried to shoot medium range ballistic missile from destroyer parked at Cuba.
Tried to gather allies to attack USA their allies.
Tired to gather Iran, Venezuela and Russia themselves to embargo oil to USA & Allies.
China will nod their head to this plan if Russia, Iran, Venezuela continue to sell oil to China.
USA may be force to either…
Retreat, pull out all the U.S. military bases at Iraq, Afghanistan, Korea, Turkey, Georgia and etc.
Send the preemptive strike on Iran & Russia way before even the war started and end the war….and start reconstruction using U.S. Contractors such as Haliburton & Blackwater.
Fight a prolong conventional war with Russia, Iran, Venezuela & their allies and began the 3rd World War for many years devastating the world with millions of death by conventional weapons & chemical & biological weapons of mass destruction.
The looming financial crisis may be the beginning of a very vast military recruitment exercise with promises of not just monetary rewards but availability of oil, electricity, water supply in the combat zones.
Those who suddenly found themselves out of job may be given their “2nd chance” to bring back food to the table for their family by offering their lives into military services.
This ladies & gentlemen was very similar to World War 1 when in the great depression comes conflicts of great magnitudes.
Human are one great destructive force but personally I do believe that there is still hope for greater cooperation between all nations for the greater good.
I do hope there will be bigger restrain from reacting to violence with violence, to revenge against terrorism will bring more serious violence to the innocents victims of both sides.
Do hope all the navy warships at the gulf of Aden DO NOT fire upon themselves without proper identification & confirmation of enemy Somalia pirates.
The worst case is to have friendly fire to spark off world war 3…or reacting to a false attack by “fake” navy warships manned by the pirates to spark this internal fight among the navy ships.
This reminds me of one episode of “Stargate Atlantis” Season 2 episode 11 where the main actor Sheppard tricks two “Wraith hive” ships into destroying each other near Edowin.
Let’s us just pray that the Somalia pirates do not have such capabilities to do such a “trick” or either of these navy ships to response in aggression without through investigation or confirmation.
The worst fears of mine is that all these “possible worst case scenarios” are pre-planned way before it happened by some dark room by movers and shakers….of the world to cut population by 2/3 on purpose and a global war may be just ONE of the solutions to resolve global resource scarcity in the future.
All these are just a fabric of my over active imaginative mind and should not be treated as real or truth.
Disclaimer Note: I am not responsible for any loss of lives, money or property assets in any event the above scenario actually becomes real for whatever reasons imaginable.
Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) — Nepal’s Maoist-led government declared a national power emergency and said consumers will face electricity cuts of as much as 10 hours a day.
The Himalayan nation will experience cuts for 63 hours a week, up from 45 hours before, Nepalnews.com reported. The Cabinet met late yesterday and agreed to look into building power plants to try to meet the electricity shortfall.
Water levels in Nepal’s mountain rivers have dropped, reducing the generation capacity of the nation’s hydroelectric plants, according to the report.
A 2.2 billion-barrel cut to crude production by OPEC failed to boost oil prices Wednesday, with markets already pricing in a reduced flow of oil.
Light, sweet crude for January delivery fell nearly 5 percent, or $2.07, $41.53 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
U.S. gasoline inventories continued to rise, the government reported, providing further evidence of a major pullback by American motorists.
Demand for gasoline over the four weeks ended Dec. 12 was 2.7 percent lower than a year earlier.
OPEC had already announced cuts totaling 2 million barrels earlier this year, also with little effect. The unprecedented production cuts and the market reaction show just how fast energy demand has fallen during the worst economic downturn in at least a generation.
Doubts also remain about the willingness of some OPEC members to adhere to announced quotas.
“OPEC has lacked credibility for a long time on discipline,” said Gerard Rigby, energy analyst at Fuel First Consulting in Sydney. “OPEC is going to have to show they are committed to the cut, that it’s not just talk.”
- So the OPEC cutting 2.2 Million barrels and Fed cut interest rates to near zero…the question is does the market really that bad until there are zero interest in the only commodity that supply life to the world?
I guess demand destruction is on the way…that means millions of workers who will SELL their cars or these humans simply cease to exist anymore hence zero demand.
Maybe there was a rapture! Demand destruction! Gone is all the demand that previously believed to be the one that driven up the oil prices!
I do have some theories.
This could be the work of these oil producers to manupilate the oil prices by internal trading and cut supply without panicking the world on the real reasons behind the supply cut…peak oil.
There is demand destruction based on severe economic depression that millions of people simply no longer own any vehicles to drive, they cease to buy oil made products, they don’t eat imported food, don’t buy imported products, they simply cease to exist.
The world leaders previously over purchase oil for stocking up their reserve in case of emergencies such as a war with Iran that might cause temporarily disruption of oil supply from the Straits of Hormuz. Currently they stopped over importing hence the market became over supplied…and with lower demand due to this and economic down turn caused the sharp down trend of the oil prices.
The movers and shakers trying to force the middle east and many oil producers into severe economic problems by causing the oil prices to collapse by poking in every bubble imaginable bursting all the “investment” schemes or credit problems.
The problem now is how the existing costly non-conventional oil supply able to cope with prolong low oil prices eating into their margins and eat away their budget for further exploration plans.
We can extend the inevitable but sooner or later we shall face the music…of non-availability of the fossil fuels…regardless of cost.
The spike of oil prices maybe contributed by two news, one of them is Israel Rejects Temporary Cease-Fire in Gaza Fighting and the second one is Russia Will Halt Gas to Ukraine as Talks Fail to Solve Dispute.
There might be more news coming out soon on this oil price spike with other possible reasons.
