According to Trinidad News:
At one time the need for more food resulted in the worldwide increase in arable land via the clearing of forests and irrigation of arid land. The land available has peaked and is decreasing because of salination of irrigated soils, diversion to bio-fuels and the growth of cities. Cheap fossil fuels allowed pumping of water for irrigation, and cheap food transport encouraged the growth of cities away from the centres of food production.
The economies of scale of large farms added to the growth of urbanisation. Cheap fossil fuels increased the ability of the farmer via mechanisation to till large areas of land, dramatically increasing the loss of top soil via water and wind erosion. Global warming, in part caused by fossil fuel use, also reduces food production yields.
Grain production in 2004 was of the order of 2 billion tonnes but with a growing and more sophisticated population production is falling short of consumption and stocks are being drawn down. The amount of crops lost to pests is increasing since immune pests are evolving faster than new pesticides can be invented. More importantly, Peak Oil, increasing demand for petroleum over-production, will make transportation, the operation of machinery and the production of petroleum-based fertilisers much more expensive, all contributing to a crisis in agriculture. Today the food production system consumes ten times the amount of fossil fuel energy as the energy in the food itself. With the coming decline in oil production, its increasing demand and its subsequent scarcity and high price, how will we be able to support the present world and regional populations?
There are two schools of thought on the way ahead – further intensification of food production via genetic engineering of new crops and animal varieties, and ecological agriculture which is criticised as being unable to feed the massive human population without chemical support. Since fossil fuels will come to an end sometime, we have to find a food production system that is much less energy intensive.
Cuban farmers were highly dependent on fuel and petrochemicals from the Soviet Union. With that country’s collapse Cuba lost all of its imports and faced the same crisis in agriculture that is now before us. Malnutrition in Cuba was widespread and that country’s GDP fell by 85 per cent. The Cuban authorities broke up the large state farms, distributed the land to farming families and encouraged the formation of small co-ops.
Tractors were replaced by oxen and Cuban scientists developed biological pest control methods and soil fertility enhancements. The government sponsored widespread education in organic food production and encouraged people to stay on the land by increasing earnings even above that of urban office workers. Gardens and the rearing of small animals were encouraged in the cities. Cuba’s energy consumption per capita is now one twentieth of that of the US and food production has now returned to 90 per cent of its pre-crisis level.
T&T produces oil and gas which are expected with reserves depletion to become too expensive to exploit within the next 15 to 20 years. Conforming to product specialisation, again dependent on cheap fuel transport, T&T exports energy products and imports much of its food from the rents earned. Already food prices are increasing due to the increasing international energy prices, demand for food and to the high liquidity of the TT dollar in the local economy. Local subsidised energy prices will have no impact on the world phenomenon of increasing prices of imported food.
We have to grow more food. Our experience with steel down- streamers suggests that the production of fertilisers by foreign direct investors in T&T will not mean cheaper fertilisers to local farmers. T&T will have no alternative but to follow in Cuba’s footsteps and develop an agricultural industry that moves progressively away from energy intensive techniques into small family lots and co-ops. We note approvingly that Caroni lands are being divided up into small family lots but are concerned about the intention to create large farms with the help of the Cubans. One can only hope that given Cuba’s experience and expertise these farms will not be fossil fuel intensive.
Agriculture in T&T will have to attract many to farming and our best brains at UWI and UTT to centres of excellence to help solve the problems of this kind of agriculture. Farmers’ earnings will have to be improved and maybe there is a case here for initially subsidising farmers instead of gasoline to drivers. We require 390,000 hectares of farm land to support our population. With only 15 per cent of T&T’s arable land (170,000 hectares) irrigated we cannot be self-sufficient in food. Possibly via Caricom we may have to address this regionally and make Guyana the bread basket of the region.
- What about Singapore????
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