According to Wall Street Journal
LONDON (Dow Jones)–The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to pump around 250,000 barrels a day less in February versus January as some members start to pull in production ahead of the end of winter next month in the main consuming nations, tanker tracker Petrologistics said Monday.Output from the 13-nation producer group is expected to average 32.4 million barrels a day, down from 32.65 million barrels a day last month, Geneva-based Petrologistics said in its preliminary forecast.
Although still well above OPEC’s production target, output from OPEC not including Iraq, which isn’t part of the group’s output allocation system, is forecast to average 30.10 million barrels a day this month, down from 30.30 million barrels a day in January. The production target of OPEC’s 12 quota-bound members is 29.67 million barrels a day.
“We’re starting to see some of them reduce output. I expect it go lower in March,” said Petrologistics head Conrad Gerber. “OPEC is not in any hurry to open the taps despite the fact that oil is near $100 a barrel.”
Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader because it holds nearly all of the group’s spare production capacity, is forecast to pump at about 9.1 million barrels a day, down 50,000 barrels a day from January.
According to Bloomberg:
…. While none of the above has yet had a significant impact on global oil supplies, there are fears the market will tighten if the OPEC cartel opts to cut output at its forthcoming March 5 meeting.OPEC president Chakib Khelil said yesterday oil prices of 101 usd mean the market is itself pricing in a production cut by the cartel, but failed to affirm what the cartel itself is planning to do.
- There are many analysis trying hard to find reasons behind the hike in oil prices but only to face with multiple reasons from falling USD to falling OPEC Supply etc. The oil traders will say it’s because of increasing demand in the winter and other speculation involved.
Dates to watch out for
- 5th March 2008 – OPEC Meeting to decide if to hold or cut supply of oil.
- 14th March 2008 – Iran parliament election, any political announcement to gain support will be right here…mostly anti-USA and Pro-Nuclear.
- 21st March 2008 - Iran nuclear power station opens, will there be some kind of re-action from Washington?
- Every Wednesday – USA Oil Inventory Report
Time will tell what will happen in March but oil prices will go anywhere…from super spike to huge correction downwards.
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