UPDATE:OPEC Feb Output Seen Down As End-Winter Nears-Tracker
According to Wall Street Journal
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to pump around 250,000 barrels a day less in February versus January as some members start to pull in production ahead of the end of winter next month in the main consuming nations, tanker tracker Petrologistics said Monday.Output from the 13-nation producer group is expected to average 32.4 million barrels a day, down from 32.65 million barrels a day last month, Geneva-based Petrologistics said in its preliminary forecast.
Although still well above OPEC's production target, output from OPEC not including Iraq, which isn't part of the group's output allocation system, is forecast to average 30.10 million barrels a day this month, down from 30.30 million barrels a day in January. The production target of OPEC's 12 quota-bound members is 29.67 million barrels a day.
"We're starting to see some of them reduce output. I expect it go lower in March," said Petrologistics head Conrad Gerber. "OPEC is not in any hurry to open the taps despite the fact that oil is near $100 a barrel."
Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de facto leader because it holds nearly all of the group's spare production capacity, is forecast to pump at about 9.1 million barrels a day, down 50,000 barrels a day from January.
According to Bloomberg:
.... While none of the above has yet had a significant impact on global oil supplies, there are fears the market will tighten if the OPEC cartel opts to cut output at its forthcoming March 5 meeting.OPEC president Chakib Khelil said yesterday oil prices of 101 usd mean the market is itself pricing in a production cut by the cartel, but failed to affirm what the cartel itself is planning to do.
- There are many analysis trying hard to find reasons behind the hike in oil prices but only to face with multiple reasons from falling USD to falling OPEC Supply etc. The oil traders will say it's because of increasing demand in the winter and other speculation involved.
Dates to watch out for
- 5th March 2008 - OPEC Meeting to decide if to hold or cut supply of oil.
- 14th March 2008 - Iran parliament election, any political announcement to gain support will be right here...mostly anti-USA and Pro-Nuclear.
- 21st March 2008 - Iran nuclear power station opens, will there be some kind of re-action from Washington?
- Every Wednesday - USA Oil Inventory Report
Time will tell what will happen in March but oil prices will go anywhere...from super spike to huge correction downwards.
Popularity: 37% [?]
February 28th, 2008 - 01:24
Is Iran really building a nuclear power station? Not sure if is for good cause or bad.
February 28th, 2008 - 01:38
They have all the reasons to build the nuclear power plant.
1. Their oil fields may had reached peak production and will soon proceed to inevitable decline, hence alternative energy source.
2. It’s also a possible deterrence measure as we see what happened to IRAQ. Now Iraq is like a war zone and the people there suffered.
3. Iran breaking free from United States totally including selling oil in Non-USD causing much pain to United States. This is basically prelude to war as it had happened in Iraq previously. Nuclear is a clear choice of defense and offense.
4. United States are no.1 Consumer of Oil and cannot afford to have oil supply disrupted. The Iran’s borders are near to the straits of Hormuz which 20% of the world oil supply passes through from Saudi, Iran, Iraq, and other oil producing countries. This route is currently well guarded by United States Carriers in the gulf but Iran’s President had persistently push their luck with missile tests and nuclear enrichment programs.
5. Iran is one of the OPEC country that wanted the oil prices to be high causing financial difficulties to the world economy, especially to United States.
So regardless of if there is any weapon of mass destructions, the sparks of war are just one button away and lies in current United States President Table.
February 28th, 2008 - 04:03
I hope US and Iran can spend more time developing renewable energy instead of just depending on oil.
February 28th, 2008 - 04:16
The fact they did, remember after the Eron Energy Collapsed? They wised up in California and built large amount of solar panels and their president did mentioned the famous line.. “America is addicted to oil”.
Now, America may not be the only country facing problems but it’s a global issue….together with America’s subprime mortgage crisis it will devastate the world economy.
I learn that from SurvivalBlog.com…but they are more doomer then I am and expect a depression in United States to be violent and hard.
Thanks for your constant support Bluegal
I do hope for the best and more people to find solutions to sustainability that does not depends on oil & Money that much and able to survive in urban build up areas.
I strongly believe escaping to rural is NOT a good idea as we urban folks does not know how to survive in the wild.
The best idea is to evolve in urban cities into Urban Indoor Eden where farming goes vertical…
Do not despair as future will be bright if we prepare and research ahead of time…
February 28th, 2008 - 20:32
Simon, i think you blog provide me with good information regarding peak oil and energy crisis and I will always be a supportor of this blog. What I hope to see is more variety of topics besides SG energy crisis. I know you have a SG complain section but i am not interested in Singapore news. I prefer to discuss more on travel, movies, good makan place, shopping, healthy living etc..
February 28th, 2008 - 23:14
Interesting ideas!
I might start a DIY Blog and movie review blog. I love to watch movies!!
As for travel, maybe in the future when I am rich. Currently I am average IT worker haha.
Regards,
Simon
February 29th, 2008 - 00:44
Movies blog sounds good to me. You set up one and let me know.
March 3rd, 2008 - 21:24
Simon,I went to watch The Eye last week and is no really good. Is exactly like the chinese version.
March 3rd, 2008 - 22:41
Haha…why you watch like me…I too watched it…the English version is a mirror image of the Chinese version. Wasted money!!
I think we should skip all English Copy Version in the future.
March 4th, 2008 - 11:17
Can’t believe you went to watch it too. you should start your movie blog soon to prevent people from wasting money.