Oil Above $100/barrel “again”

According to Bloomberg:

Oil surged to $100 a barrel in New York for the first time in two years as Libya’s violent uprising threatened to disrupt exports from Africa’s third-biggest supplier and spread to other Middle East oil producers.

According to rte.ie

The price of Brent crude oil jumped more than $8 a barrel in London this morning as fears spread that unrest across North Africa and the Middle East could further disrupt oil supplies.

This morning the price of Brent hit a high of $119.79 a barrel, up $8.54 from yesterday’s close.

Here we have history unfolding right in front of our eyes, just like an fictional book about the coming depression of the world where oil prices goes sky high but my feelings is this will depress the world economy so much due to hyperinflation and cause a sudden drop in “demand” of oil itself.

This is because renewable energy or other alternative energy will suddenly become very viable due to the cost comparison with oil price and demand of oil will drop eventually, however this change won’t happen overnight as there are still millions or billions of vehicles that uses oil, petrol chemical products are everywhere including plastic, gasoline, paint and thousands of stuffs, food also uses plenty of oil before reaching our dinner table.

Ultimately, once the middle east unrest are settled down either with another war (oil grab) or otherwise, the price of oil may fluctuate wildly.

Saudi’s oil is not of the highest quality (usually high sulfur which is deadly) and hence cannot 100% cover the loss in Libya’s oil field.

Tonight’s market will go crazy with the news happening now and it will be very very risky to trade now as you won’t know the next movement will be.

Popularity: 8% [?]

Watch for signs of collapse of the Dollar

Listen as Follow the Money Weekly Radio show host, Jerry Robinson, explains the shocking truth about the coming collapse of the U.S. Dollar. In this video, Jerry Robinson explains the Petrodollar System and how it’s collapse will destroy the dollar.

Jerry Robinson is a popular economist and best-selling author of the book “Bankruptcy of our Nation.” You can learn more about him and his weekly radio show, Follow the Money Weekly, online at http://www.ftmdaily.com

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US Dollar, when will it hyper-inflate? Are we all affected when it happens? Yes definitely!

Anything that’s still pegged to the US Dollar that became worthless when Petrol dollar system collapses will be suddenly too expensive to purchase at least for people who have their savings in US Dollars.

Let’s monitor some news about Petrol dollars & warn each others to “Spend” away all the US Dollar and collect something really valuable like skills, food, water, energy & shelter. The rest are still considered as “material” goods that are worth xxxx dollars in the future that we might not afford.

However, with US Economy down…it may means less demand for exports of goods by exporting countries like China which may implode their economy too. This will have a ripple effect throughout the world as the market balance everything out.

The rich may end up poorer with “alternative” investment in other “valuable” assets that deem valuable at that point of time like “properties”, “paper assets”, and other electronic numbers traded worldwide without knowing if the goods they traded in actually exist or knowing the actual demand.

The green technology may end up winner for the “user” but because of hyperinflation, those savings from using green technology may be negligible with rising energy cost.

The next oil price spike is coming soon when the petrol dollar system collapses.

But will we die from the dollar collapse? No, people had been without money in the ancient world for a long time…as they barter trade their goods & services with alternative “valuables” for many many years.

Just think positive & survive in anyway possible regardless of the value of your currency.

Popularity: 8% [?]

Ghost Towns & Malls in China

According to Wikipedia:

Dongguan, with a population in excess of 10 million, is located in southern China’s Guangdong province, east of the province’s largest city, Guangzhou. The mall was built on land formerly used for farming, in the Wanjiang District of the city. The project was spearheaded by Hu Guirong (Alex Hu), who became a billionaire in the instant noodle industry.

The mall contains sufficient space for as many as 2,350 stores in approximately 659,612 m2 of leasable space[2] and 892,000 m2 of total area.

The mall has seven zones modeled on international cities, nations and regions, including Amsterdam, Paris, Rome, Venice, Egypt, the Caribbean, and California. Features include an 25 m replica of the Arc de Triomphe, a replica of Venice’s St Mark’s bell tower, a 2.1 km canal with gondolas, and an 553-meter indoor-outdoor roller coaster.

Since its opening in 2005, the mall has suffered from a severe lack of occupants. Much of the retail space has remained empty, with over 99% of the stores vacant. The only occupied areas of the mall are near the entrance where several Western fast food chains are located and a parking structure repurposed as a kart racing track. A planned Shangri-La Hotel has not been constructed.

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According to sendawa.com

These satellite images show sprawling cities built in remote parts of China that have been left completely abandoned, sometimes years after their construction.

1. Ghost city: Kangbashi was meant to be the urban centre for wealthy coal-mining community Ordos and home to its one million workers, but its roads are eerily empty and the houses stand vacant

There are many towns in China quoted by the article above including Kangbashi, Bayannaoer, Zhengzhou New District, half of Erenhot, City of Dantu and Part of Xinyang.

Soaring property prices in China and high levels of investment has fuelled the construction of up several new cities. Experts fear a subsequent property crash could damage the global economy

Back in 2009
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More photographs by Time Magazines about Modern Ghost Town of China

This article represents a very disturbing trend that China currently facing, their citizens who buy properties but never really move into the new estate may present several problems in the near future.

These properties had became a sort of investment instead of using them as accommodation, this beat the conventional wisdom of normal demand & supply base on “actual demand”.

Actual demand of a property may represent the real value of the property that includes the surrounding amenities, availability of shops, offices and transportation.

However, if the citizen of China blindly purchase properties without proper research into the area & end up losing their investment or worst owning large sum of property loans from bank.

If there is another banking crisis similar to the sub prime crisis in America previously to happen in China….there will be millions of property owners to suddenly get burnt by their investment.

But looking in the positive note, if the China’s government manage to relocate their people in a city wide effort into the new town…it may not be so bad at all but if the citizens refuse to budge from their old city and continue to dream about reselling their properties to RICH people hence making a quick buck…may continue to hold on to their properties until the next bubble to burst.

If China’s property market burst, the economic crisis will SPREAD FAR across the globe probably making lot’s of investors very very poor.

Popularity: 14% [?]

USA Unemployment August 5 2010, New Madrid Fault and Earthquakes

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The above video is one of the scariest video I have ever seen! This may means the capital letter “D” is approaching fast and quick.

Yes I’m talking about USA going into economic depression. However, I have no way of finding out if this map carry accurate data or if it’s fake, anyone who have inside information do comment below.

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This next video shows a analysis of the unemployment map vesus the (NASCO) North America’s SuperCorridor  Coalition might suggest that the New Madrid Fault may going to have Earthquakes? Well, to me it may simply by risk assessment business decision to avoid the New Madrid Fault instead of a conspiracy of being “behind it”.

However, the Unemployment map shows a serious situation in United States that concerned me and this probably will eventually affect the world economy.

Popularity: 8% [?]

Space scientists warn of possible disaster in three years’ time, 2012 Solar Storm.

According to The Electric New Paper:

A GRIM prediction of a world teetering on the edge of apocalypse has come, not from the lips of soothsayers or lunatics, but from space scientists. In a report funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Nasa) and issued by the US National Academy of Sciences earlier this year, space scientists warned of a massive solar storm wreaking havoc on Earth in 2012.

A solar storm – essentially plasma balls spewing from the surface of the sun – can distort the Earth’s magnetic field. A particularly big one can destroy the tens of thousands of expensive and hard-to-build transformers in power grids worldwide. This will plunge major cities like Singapore into blackouts, which are expected to last months, or even years, as new transformers are painstakingly manufactured.

Meanwhile, with no power, modern life grinds to a standstill. In the first moments of this catastrophe, trains will collide and planes will crash, as their communications systems fail. Satellites will crash back to Earth like meteors. Hospitals, with their life-sustaining support systems, will see some of the most urgent needs at first.

But eventually, millions may die from hunger and thirst. With no power, food cannot be processed or delivered. Water cannot be pumped from reservoirs into homes. Back-up generators will help, but only for a few days before their fuel runs out.

As sewage systems fail, diseases will break out. Horses will replace cars, the financial system will collapse and, in a silver lining of sorts, there will certainly be no more e-mails for you to clear.

- Read the full article at The Electric New Paper:

Yes, this is related to the solar storms that is currently causing some “warming” in many planets recently but predicted to peak in solar activities in 2012 as “planet x” passes.

Knowing

Knowing

What we can do is to find underground caves in desperate search for safety to be away from the burning sun just like the ending of the latest blockbuster movie “Knowing” or the best case scenario is global blackout for a few months pushing millions of people into 3rd world country in a concrete city like Singapore.

Those who cannot find food & water will simply perish easily in this kind of apocalyptic future with massive & immediate job losses (who will work without electricity?) and total chaos will erupt.

My hope is Singapore will band together and “prepare” for any contingencies by being as self sustainable as possible and buy ALL kinds of renewable energies available that is suitable for Singapore.

The government should not hinder the work of invention with patent laws & the inventions should not be profit driven but survival driven…this is a global disaster not just Singapore alone….and everyone have their parts to play…

Do you want to be the victim or the provider? You decide.

Popularity: 55% [?]

Royal Dutch Shell Shell dumps wind, solar and hydro power in favour of biofuels

According to Guardian:

Shell will no longer invest in renewable technologies such as wind, solar and hydro power because they are not economic, the Anglo-Dutch oil company said today. It plans to invest more in biofuels which environmental groups blame for driving up food prices and deforestation.

Executives at its annual strategy presentation said Shell, already the world’s largest buyer and blender of crop-based biofuels, would also invest an unspecified amount in developing a new generat­ion of biofuels which do not use food-based crops and are less harmful to the environment.

Read the full article at Guardian:

- The world is going to hell by abandoning free energy from nature by pushing towards greed instead of sustainability, unfortunate big corporation that depends on fossil fuels will always “discourage” renewable energies as a failure and make more people to give up on their sustainability dreams.

Shell = Hell?

Shell = Hell?

They cannot do it because they cannot profit on it but on the individual basis, or a small village…it’s almost no brainier to go renewable instead of using fossil fuels.

The Government who have the “future” in their minds is more “corporation” building more offices & unsustainable cities…it’s time for them to face the truth and understand $$$ does not means you live…it’s just means you live today…tomorrow…the same apple going to cost you more $ due to hyperinflation caused by more bail out money printed out of thin air by private bank(s) (Central Bank).

The world is just beginning to realize the problem that the rich CEO cannot survive if the domino effect of “bank run” starts to ruined the public confidence.

I guess the world can’t get enough of money and fossil fuel…pray hard that the retribution don’t come so quickly.

Popularity: 3% [?]

CNPC forecasts $40 oil, sees output cut

According to Reuters:

BEIJING, March 7 – China’s CNPC forecasts global oil to average at $40 a barrel this year, a conservative market view that has led the firm to expect its crude output to drop for the first time in years, a company executive said on Saturday.

The world’s number two oil consumer, accounting for more than a third of incremental world oil demand in the past few years, has been hit by the global economic crisis, with its oil use falling since November and fuel stocks brimming as industrial activities slow.

CNPC, parent of PetroChina and producing nearly 60 percent of China’s total domestic crude, would likely see its oil output drop below 2008 levels this year, reversing a long upward trend, Yu Baocai, CNPC’s vice-president, said.

Read the full article at Reuters:

- This is yet another forecast that basically says nothing much other than what they had bet on, it’s widely known that most forecast is a load of crap.

That also include my own predictions as well, nobody can know the future…unless you have special powers or you know what is the limitation of all physical & political & phycological boundaries of human.

Well, my prediction is more huge spikes & huge corrections…simple as that.

1st, global oil supply cut by OPEC & Russia & many others….Global demand drops so no shortages hence no price spike for now.

2nd, Oil producers either cut future supply by stopping most oil exploration & expansion projects and when the economic growth starts…it shall be limited to the amount of oil available…

3rd, Panic sets into the people’s mind and price spikes

4th, Global depression sets in…people die everywhere…price collapse.

5th, Many people got burned badly in their persuit of greed & power found real wealth in sustainability development.

6th…dare not predict any more.

Popularity: 1% [?]

Global Crisis Round Up 6 March 2009

Economic Crisis

Economic Crisis

The world is in a complete mess, this feeling is not uncommon among those who are monitoring the news online.

Energy Crisis

Firstly, Russia had previously hiked up the price of natural gas and expects Ukraine to pay up the new price of natural gas or face another gas supply cut.

This year’s price rise for gas sold by Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom has been dramatic — Naftogaz is paying $360 per 1,000 cubic metres in the first quarter from $179.50 last year, although Ukrainian officials have said they expect the figure to come down steeply.

Naftogaz says its ability to pay for Russian gas is complicated by huge debts owed to it by local utilities.

State security officials tried on Thursday to stage a raid for the second straight day on Ukraine’s gas industry, heightening long-running tensions between the president and prime minister.

A similar raid on Wednesday by armed SBU officers on the offices of national energy company Naftogaz as the firm was making arrangements to settle a critical bill for Russian gas revived feuding between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

Putin, addressing his government, said failure by Ukraine to pay could prompt Gazprom to curtail supplies, as it did for three weeks in January, and again cut off customers in Europe.

“If as a result of law enforcement actions and arrests of a number of officials there will be no payment, it will lead to the stoppage of our energy deliveries to our customers in Ukraine as well as customer in Europe,” Putin said.

Ukraine’s energy company paid its February bill for Russian gas in full Thursday, officials said, moving swiftly to avoid a cutoff that could have affected deliveries to Europe.

In short, Ukraine’s energy future is in serious problem…this include those customers from Europe that receive natural gas from Russia via Ukraine.

Now with the global economic crisis hitting the Eastern Europe with a vengeance, Ukraine and many European countries (involved)  may be facing a relatively dangerous energy crisis in the near future.

North Korea Crisis

NKorea says cannot ensure safety of SKorea flights: state media

North Korea announced Thursday it could not ensure the safety of South Korean flights over the Sea of Japan because an upcoming joint US-South Korean military exercise could trigger a war.

North Korea is also preparing to fire a rocket from a base overlooking the Sea of Japan for what it calls a satellite launch. Seoul and Washington say the real purpose is to test a missile that could theoretically reach Alaska.

“Under the touch-and-go situation where the North and the South are in full combat readiness and level their rifles and artillery pieces at each other, no one can guess what will trigger off a war,” said the North’s statement, from the state Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea.

Its military would respond to the “slightest provocation or its sign” on land, sea or in the air with “decisive and devastating blows at the aggressors.”

IRAN Threat

Commander says Iran missiles can reach Israel atom sites!

Iranian missiles can reach Israeli nuclear sites, a top military commander said on Wednesday, after persistent speculation that Israel could target facilities involved in Iran’s atomic work.

Iran has long said it has missiles that could reach the Jewish state but has not generally mentioned specific targets. Military analysts question whether Iranian missiles have the ability to hit targets at such ranges with great accuracy.

- This have serious implication due to the fact that Iran Commander specified their possible targets on Israel which means they had stepped up their rhetoric against Israel to either provoking for a fight or preparing for one.

It can also be a warning to deter Israel from conducting a military preemptive strike on Iran which may have disastrous consequences now that Iran have missiles that can ‘send satellite’ to space.

What will Israel response to this ‘challenge’? What will Obama administration going to do to control the situation?

Economic Crisis

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said Insurance Fund Could Be Insolvent This Year (2009)

“A large number” of bank failures may occur through 2010 because of “rapidly deteriorating economic conditions,” Bair said in the letter. “Without substantial amounts of additional assessment revenue in the near future, current projections indicate that the fund balance will approach zero or even become negative.”

AIG share prices falls to a record low at $0.36 (6 March 2009) as U.S. regulators failed to spot how much risk insurer AIG was piling on, and by the time they understood, they had no choice but to pour in tens of billions of public dollars, officials said on Thursday.

AIG sold insurance-like protection, known as credit default swaps, against declines in the value of securities — including subprime mortgages that began defaulting at an alarming rate when the housing market tumbled.

That picture emerged Thursday in General Motors Corp.’s annual report, where its auditors voiced “substantial doubt” about GM’s ability to continue operating.

In the report, the company said that Deloitte & Touche LLP cited recurring losses from operations, a sharp decline in stock price and an inability to generate enough cash to meet its obligations as casting doubt on GM being able to continue as a going concern.

The disclosure about a company that has been inseparably linked to jobs and the economy of Western New York for nearly 90 years, means that Chapter 11 protection for GM might not be far away, said a Buffalo expert in corporate bankruptcy law.

“Unless the government comes up with additional bailout assistance, it confirms that Chapter 11 will happen in the near term,” said Garry Graber, a lawyer with HodgsonRuss LLC.

“They have a cash issue — not enough cash flow without government infusion to continue to operate,” he said.

Citigroup stock falls below $1 for first time, One dollar could buy a cup of coffee, a pack of chewing gum, or a roll of bathroom tissue.

For the first time, it could also buy a share of Citigroup Inc (C.N), once the world’s largest bank by market value.

The price of a Citigroup share on Thursday fell below $1 in a sign that investors are losing confidence that the lender, which operates in more than 100 countries, can be restored to health after $37.5 billion of losses in the 15 months ended December 31.

- This means thousands more people will lose their jobs and probably unable to support themselves in the near future…be prepared for self sustainability and stock up at least 2 months worth of food, water & other essentials.

Popularity: 2% [?]

The Sleeping Threat of Low Oil Prices

Abandoned Oil Pump

Abandoned Oil Pump

According to Energy And Capital:

Oil prices in the high $30s to low $40s are nothing short of a ticking time bomb under the world economy, but you wouldn’t know it from watching the commodity markets.

Once the global downturn slashed $100 off the price of a barrel, the issue of oil supply seemed to simply fall off the radar of market observers.

Falling oil demand is all that anyone seems to care about, but we may pay dearly for taking our eye off the ball of supply.

Read the full article at Energy And Capital:

- The above article describe exactly what I had been talking about but with more detail information on the facts & figures.

Let me summarize the article in point forms.

  1. Oil prices in the high $30s to low $40s are nothing short of a ticking time bomb
  2. While the price of oil has crashed from its highs last summer, the costs of production—including labor, steel, rig leasing, and so on—have not declined nearly as much
  3. Oil revenues are off sharply across the industry, and most companies are taking write-downs on revenue, and cutting costs
  4. Production from Mexico, our number-three source of imports, is in serious trouble. Its oil output fell 9.2% in January to its lowest level since 1995, but its exports are falling much faster, at a 20% decline, according to Pemex
  5. The decline of Cantarell, one of the four “supergiant” oil fields in the world, has accelerated to 38% per year. At the current rate, Mexico’s oil exports will cease altogether in seven years or less.
  6. Things are no better in the Middle East. OPEC reports delays of more than 35 of 150 planned upstream projects, with some postponed until after 2013. Additional project delays are expected.
  7. Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi has warned that the world needs $75 oil to ensure future supply, and that current prices “are wreaking havoc on the industry and threatening current and planned investments.”
  8. Deutsche Bank calculates the global loss of oil production due to poor economics at 700,000 barrels per day with oil at $30 a barrel, of which more than half would be lost production from tar sands.
  9. At $20 a barrel, fully 3.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) would be uneconomical to produce.
  10. Shell chief financial officer Peter Voser says the company’s current cost is around $38 per barrel. But the cost of new tar sands projects is much higher: According to an analysis by Merrill Lynch, it doesn’t pay to invest in new tar sands projects until oil sells for about $80 a barrel.
  11. Continued reports of oil project cancellations and postponements have prompted the IEA to intensify its drumbeat of alarms about future supply. Last week the agency warned that if oil demand recovers in 2010, global spare capacity would fall to zero by 2013.

- This is almost as alarming as an extinction level event that may come by 2013 when all spare capacity may be totally run out.

This statement gave me the chills down my very spine, that may means oil may be either the harbinger of death, chaos & destruction.

Peak Oil real effects is about to reveal it’s ugly head by 2013 when people inevitably die in the thousands or millions due to starvation, violence, epidemic, thirst, war and those who survive may be enslaved by the ever ballooning cost of living.

We must start to understand how to survive this and monetary bail out may not be the key solution to the economic crisis.

The Great Depression have the following 9 conditions

  1. Debt liquidation and distress selling
  2. Contraction of the money supply as bank loans are paid off
  3. A fall in the level of asset prices
  4. A still greater fall in the net worths of business, precipitating bankruptcies
  5. A fall in profits
  6. A reduction in output, in trade and in employment.
  7. Pessimism and loss of confidence
  8. Hoarding of money
  9. A fall in nominal interest rates and a rise in deflation adjusted interest rates.

These conditions had already been met by certain level by current economic crisis and we must not ignore the lessons of the past mistakes made the last time.

We must not repeat the same mistakes again & again…

Be prepared for sustainability, or be sorry.

Popularity: 3% [?]

RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process

U.S. Dollars

U.S. Dollars

According to The Market Ticker:

8:17 CT

I do not know what is going on here, and I don’t think I want to.

Someone, apparently someone in Asia, wants dollars.  A LOT of dollars.  There is a forced-liquidation event underway that is massive, it is against all asset classes and it is spreading.

It originated at approximately 7:15 CT this evening and originated out of Asia somewhere.  All of the primary currency crosses got hit at once – Euro, Pound, Yen – all weakened dramatically against the dollar and it is still going on.  The Asian stock markets got walloped at the same time in coordinated waves of forced selling.

Read the full article at The Market Ticker:

- Alert! If this is true then we must prepare for the worst as there will be serious collapse in the financial market all at once, not sure what is going to happen.

The article had even shown a montage of nuclear explosion but is it that bad? I wonder what does it mean to the people on the ground trading…or the investors.

Does that means more people going into serious debts? More people earning more money via Forex trading?

Do leave your comments on this!

Thanks lowem for the heads up for this alert!

Popularity: 1% [?]