Oil Price Mixed?

Crude prices fell in Asian trade today following news that repairs to a key pipeline carrying oil from Canada to the United States were almost complete, analysts said.

Enbridge had already submitted a restart plan to authorities, with an official saying that the line “should be up and running in some form or fashion by the end of the week,” media reports stated.

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OPEC facing dilemma over prices

According to Middle East Online

CGES consultancy warns current oil prices will hamper global economic recovery, energy demand.

The above news is probably just a indication that they are happy with the current price as they can divert the investment on more complex but more efficient method of extracting oil from the ground or deep sea oil reserve.

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Russia sees no need for oil cuts as shortage looming

According to Yahoo!News:

MOSCOW, April 22 – Russia believes global oil output cuts will have a short-lived effect and made no sense given a looming global supply shortage in the medium term, Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko said on Wednesday.

“According to various estimates, there will be a serious shortage of oil supply, maybe in one, maybe in two-three years,” Shmatko told reporters.

“It will coincide with the end of the global economic crisis and will lead to serious instability, including in the pricing of oil,” he said. “A simple cut in production can, in our view, have only a short-lived impact.”

Read the full article at Yahoo!News:

- Russia to predict this as the beginning of the OIL SHORTAGE AKA PEAK OIL EFFECTs to impact the whole world in 2 to 3 years time!!!?

What does Russia knows that most people on the streets don’t?

Let me put up various assumptions

  1. The Russian knew about peak oil way longer then I do
  2. The Russian already knew a pending war in the Gulf is about to erupt?
  3. Russian use reverse psychology to give investors a great scare to boost the price of oil without cutting oil supply…hmm
  4. Russia forcing OPEC to cut more instead so to earn more without sacrificing it’s own output.

Well, Israel is still hot on Iran’s dateline for Nuclear Plant “activation” and possibly strike BEFORE it’s activation date but who knows? It can be next week…2 days from now…tonight…now?

The problem is nobody is fully prepared for such event to happen and seriously it seems Russia is prepared for the very possible oil shortage in the medium term…1 to 3 years time…which is VERY FREAKY close to the end of the world date “2012″…or is it just a myth? Y2K anyone?

Well, I think we will all die one day but I want to die a happy man…with someone that I care or love to be with by my side hugging and smiling (Scene in the movie “Knowing”).

What can we do? I am not sure, Singapore seems to be experiencing heat wave & sudden gush of storms lately…not sure about the rest of the world…but I feel maybe the storm is coming…the real storm that will flood the world in few hours…the real event of ELE (Extinction Level Event).

The ice coming down into the ocean from greenland in a big SPLASH to create a MEGA TSUNAMI so huge…it will make many small countries disappear overnight…leaving a whirlpool of nothingness.

The sun may erupt into violent solar storms that caused great electrical distabuance in the whole world…massive blackouts, stalled vehicles, crashing planes, derailment of trains and the great migration of refugees from frozen wasteland or desert land that no longer have electricity for months and months ahead…even with working generators…some electronics might not even work after the solar storm…causing great confusion and panic.

Massive numbers of people will jump to their death when their favorite video sharing site crashed and loses ALL data forever and unable to reboot…they can’t surf the internet anyway.

Many have to learn how to scarvenge or loot their way to survive as millions or billions will no longer able to work without computers.

Of course the above scenario are not a reality now hence we have to feel blessed to be alive now rather then in the future…

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Oil trades above $51 as stock rallies boost hopes

According to Yahoo!News:

VIENNA – Oil bounded over the $50 a barrel hurdle with room to spare Thursday, as traders took heart from rallies in global stock markets as an indication of overall investor optimism.

But the murky outlook for the global economy was likely to keep prices relatively volatile in the medium term, with crude’s rise and fall expected to follow the performance of global markets.

Benchmark crude for April delivery surged $3.26 to $51.40 a barrel by midday in Europe on the New York Mercantile Exchange, trading at levels last seen in December, when oil was falling from stellar prices near $150 a barrel.

Still, it was unclear whether oil demand from developed countries, which are still reeling from a financial crisis and severe recession, can justify sustained trading above $50 a barrel.

Read the full article at Yahoo!News:

- Yes, oil prices is going up again and this time round it may take a huge roller coaster ride to the peak

The prediction is still on the up trend base on the amount of money being printed by the Federal US Government through bail out after bail out of billions of US taxpayer’s money right into the pocket of rich “corporation” in those mega companies that deem “too big to fail“.

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Israel Sabre Rattling Against Iran, Oil Goes Up?

According to Press TV:

Israeli army ordered to devise Iran war

As Israeli talks of war on Iran gain momentum, Israel’s military Chief of Staff says the army must prepare for a military aggression.


In a meeting with top US diplomats on Monday, Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi said Israel could not live with a nuclear Iran and that an Israeli military strike was a “serious” option in retarding the country’s progress.


Ashkenazi — whose request to meet with President Barack Obama and his American counterpart Admiral Mike Mullen was turned down — made the remarks in a meeting with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her designated US envoy to the Persian Gulf, Dennis Ross.


The Israeli general and the American hosts discussed the Iranian issue shortly after reports revealed that the Israeli Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu plans a “major military confrontation” in the next few months.


Read the full article at Press TV:

- Light Nymex WTI Crude Oil went up today to be above $48 as per predicted on the up trend.

Oil Spike 18th March 2009

Oil Spike 18th March 2009

The reason behind this may be other than the effects of the previous OPEC supply cut but also the fear of a new middle east conflict to brew into action in the next few months.

Non-OPEC countries such as Russia had planned to buy back some of their own oil as reserve to counter the current low oil price problem.

The threat of lower oil prices to the big oil industry IS very destructive to future oil supply level as many projects had been scaled down & exploration budget cut with multiple layoff of workers for non-conventional oil projects.

The future curve of oil supply may be downwards causing a “virtual” & probably irreversible trend of global declining of oil supply that may cause more economic hardships for many countries especially those third world countries.

The future revolution may be the beginning of sustainable cities to be constructed from scratch and major population may move in on moment notice.

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Oil Prices Goes Beserk Again…Down, Up, Down?

The oil prices is one elusive one as the delay impact of OPEC delaying the oil supply cut dip the oil prices back on Monday went back up $3 on Early Tuesday to $47 and began it’s profit taking cycle once more and plummet down to $46.72.

The trend on the previous 2 weeks still on a gradual up trend but with wild flucuation and sharp spikes and dives.

2week

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Oil prices hit new highs for the year (10 March 2009)

According to Yahoo!News:

Oil prices hit new highs for the year Monday as investors geared up for the potential of more OPEC production cuts.

Read the full article at Yahoo!News:

Oil Spike 10 March 2009

Oil Spike 10 March 2009

- Benchmark crude for April delivery gained $2.01 to $47.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices reached as high as $48.83 earlier in the day.

Is this the rising tide welcoming the March 15 2009 OPEC meeting? Time will tell..

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OPEC rubbishes IEA on oil prices

According to Yahoo!News:

OPEC

OPEC

VIENNA (AFP) – - OPEC snapped back at the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday over its assessment that oil prices of around 40 dollars a barrel would be good for the global economy.

“The IEA has said that the world would get a trillion-dollar economic stimulus if oil prices stay at around 40 dollars a barrel through 2009,” the head of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Abdalla Salem El-Badri, said in a statement.

“The moderation of prices since last summer’s extreme certainly offers some short-term relief to consumers. However, if the current low price environment persists, this short-term relief may not translate into long-term gain,” El-Badri argued.

“We all want to see the global economy back on its feet as quickly as possible,” the cartel chief insisted.
But “oil prices need to be at levels to help sustain economic growth by supporting longer-term energy industry investments across the board. Low oil prices inevitably mean less investment,” he said.

Even the IEA, which represents industrialised oil-consuming countries, had recognised that a lack of investment now by OPEC “threatens a supply crunch around 2013, and a price surge,” El-Badri said.

IEA’s position was therefore “confusing and misleading: whilst asking for prices to remain at 40 dollars, it also wants investments to be made that are not economically viable at these prices. It is a short-sighted view,” the OPEC chief said.

Read the full article at Yahoo!News:

- This means IEA are having a wild time right now making statements after statements of useless forecast and recommendations that does not translate into actual usefullness and may jepodize the future supply of oil due to lack of investments & the whole world will crumble under such disasterous event.

The world cannot afford to have oil prices to remain at $40 per barrel for long as many non-conventional oil is going to be shut down if they remains non economically viable and declare bankrupt.

A sudden irreversilble spiral of doom & destruction may come suddenly when oil shortages causes more volatility of oil prices that will again destroy the world economy once again…and repeat…and repeat.

Let’s us all pray for a stable $75 per barrels after march 15 or we shall see dooms day event by 2013.

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CNPC forecasts $40 oil, sees output cut

According to Reuters:

BEIJING, March 7 – China’s CNPC forecasts global oil to average at $40 a barrel this year, a conservative market view that has led the firm to expect its crude output to drop for the first time in years, a company executive said on Saturday.

The world’s number two oil consumer, accounting for more than a third of incremental world oil demand in the past few years, has been hit by the global economic crisis, with its oil use falling since November and fuel stocks brimming as industrial activities slow.

CNPC, parent of PetroChina and producing nearly 60 percent of China’s total domestic crude, would likely see its oil output drop below 2008 levels this year, reversing a long upward trend, Yu Baocai, CNPC’s vice-president, said.

Read the full article at Reuters:

- This is yet another forecast that basically says nothing much other than what they had bet on, it’s widely known that most forecast is a load of crap.

That also include my own predictions as well, nobody can know the future…unless you have special powers or you know what is the limitation of all physical & political & phycological boundaries of human.

Well, my prediction is more huge spikes & huge corrections…simple as that.

1st, global oil supply cut by OPEC & Russia & many others….Global demand drops so no shortages hence no price spike for now.

2nd, Oil producers either cut future supply by stopping most oil exploration & expansion projects and when the economic growth starts…it shall be limited to the amount of oil available…

3rd, Panic sets into the people’s mind and price spikes

4th, Global depression sets in…people die everywhere…price collapse.

5th, Many people got burned badly in their persuit of greed & power found real wealth in sustainability development.

6th…dare not predict any more.

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The Sleeping Threat of Low Oil Prices

Abandoned Oil Pump

Abandoned Oil Pump

According to Energy And Capital:

Oil prices in the high $30s to low $40s are nothing short of a ticking time bomb under the world economy, but you wouldn’t know it from watching the commodity markets.

Once the global downturn slashed $100 off the price of a barrel, the issue of oil supply seemed to simply fall off the radar of market observers.

Falling oil demand is all that anyone seems to care about, but we may pay dearly for taking our eye off the ball of supply.

Read the full article at Energy And Capital:

- The above article describe exactly what I had been talking about but with more detail information on the facts & figures.

Let me summarize the article in point forms.

  1. Oil prices in the high $30s to low $40s are nothing short of a ticking time bomb
  2. While the price of oil has crashed from its highs last summer, the costs of production—including labor, steel, rig leasing, and so on—have not declined nearly as much
  3. Oil revenues are off sharply across the industry, and most companies are taking write-downs on revenue, and cutting costs
  4. Production from Mexico, our number-three source of imports, is in serious trouble. Its oil output fell 9.2% in January to its lowest level since 1995, but its exports are falling much faster, at a 20% decline, according to Pemex
  5. The decline of Cantarell, one of the four “supergiant” oil fields in the world, has accelerated to 38% per year. At the current rate, Mexico’s oil exports will cease altogether in seven years or less.
  6. Things are no better in the Middle East. OPEC reports delays of more than 35 of 150 planned upstream projects, with some postponed until after 2013. Additional project delays are expected.
  7. Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi has warned that the world needs $75 oil to ensure future supply, and that current prices “are wreaking havoc on the industry and threatening current and planned investments.”
  8. Deutsche Bank calculates the global loss of oil production due to poor economics at 700,000 barrels per day with oil at $30 a barrel, of which more than half would be lost production from tar sands.
  9. At $20 a barrel, fully 3.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) would be uneconomical to produce.
  10. Shell chief financial officer Peter Voser says the company’s current cost is around $38 per barrel. But the cost of new tar sands projects is much higher: According to an analysis by Merrill Lynch, it doesn’t pay to invest in new tar sands projects until oil sells for about $80 a barrel.
  11. Continued reports of oil project cancellations and postponements have prompted the IEA to intensify its drumbeat of alarms about future supply. Last week the agency warned that if oil demand recovers in 2010, global spare capacity would fall to zero by 2013.

- This is almost as alarming as an extinction level event that may come by 2013 when all spare capacity may be totally run out.

This statement gave me the chills down my very spine, that may means oil may be either the harbinger of death, chaos & destruction.

Peak Oil real effects is about to reveal it’s ugly head by 2013 when people inevitably die in the thousands or millions due to starvation, violence, epidemic, thirst, war and those who survive may be enslaved by the ever ballooning cost of living.

We must start to understand how to survive this and monetary bail out may not be the key solution to the economic crisis.

The Great Depression have the following 9 conditions

  1. Debt liquidation and distress selling
  2. Contraction of the money supply as bank loans are paid off
  3. A fall in the level of asset prices
  4. A still greater fall in the net worths of business, precipitating bankruptcies
  5. A fall in profits
  6. A reduction in output, in trade and in employment.
  7. Pessimism and loss of confidence
  8. Hoarding of money
  9. A fall in nominal interest rates and a rise in deflation adjusted interest rates.

These conditions had already been met by certain level by current economic crisis and we must not ignore the lessons of the past mistakes made the last time.

We must not repeat the same mistakes again & again…

Be prepared for sustainability, or be sorry.

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