Oil hovers above $58 on signs recession easing
According to Yahoo!News:
SINGAPORE - Oil prices hovered above $58 a barrel Tuesday in Asia on growing investor optimism that the worst U.S. recession since World War II may have bottomed.
Benchmark crude for June delivery was down 23 cents to $58.27 a barrel midday in Singapore, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Monday, the contract fell 13 cents to settle at $58.50.
Oil prices have jumped from below $35 a barrel in February amid signs the pace of economic deterioration has slowed, setting the scene for an eventual recovery.
"The feeling is we've seen the worst of it, and the only way now is up," said Gerard Rigby, an energy analyst with Fuel First Consulting in Sydney. "Some of this is also a trading momentum play."
It's kind of weird seeing oil prices tied to employment figures, first quarter earning figures and general economy outlook instead of pure demand and supply. The general feel I get from articles such as above is that they are seeking REASONS why oil price had increased the past 2 weeks and identify the culprit.
They had constantly mentioning that there are NO increase in crude demand & there are no pressure on supply side and that is true if you are talking about NOW but if you are talking about future crude demand & supply...it will be another story.
The delicate balance now is for the world to accept the fact that we cannot afford to use oil wastefully anymore even when the economy returns back to "better days", we will face hyperinflation easily by the up swing of oil prices or down swing of US dollars.
With H1N1 infection still continue to spread across the globe regardless if it's lethal or not...it may eventually slice off few hundred thousands weak and old people with underlying medical conditions such as a bad lung, heart or other related diseases.
Demand might balance it self with some miracle and normalize the price of oil for a period of time but with more people now investing & speculating on crude oil...it will go ANYWHERE from a super spike one day and a major correction the next and all these happens regardless of actual physical demand.
I am happy that the signs of recession may be easing off slightly and the only way to stay alive is to keep that positive thinking & prepare for contingencies.
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May 13th, 2009 - 14:16
Seems like the Light Crude oil prices coming back down to support prices but what exactly is the support price?
May 15th, 2009 - 13:46
Hi SimonTay! Recent trading and prices in the OIL PIT based upon Official Gov't Supply/Demand Data has many “expert” market analysts scratching their heads… They can't seem to understand what is supporting and pushing HIGH OIL PRICES, except that they point to signs that the global economy is falling off the cliff less fast, which many “experts” are calling “a bottoming process”. Another powerful dynamic in play is the oil thirsty China Dragon, which is pumping/stimulating their own increasingly growing domestic middle class consumer driven economy, while they have discontinued their role as the biggest buyer of all that escalating USDebt, along with others around the world, thus forcing the FED into the lead position of buying up all escalating USDebt, aside from the FED'$ overheated Printing Presses Gone Wild, which is no doubt contributing to “global warming”.
All the increasingly questionable liberal “stimulus” spending is arguably socialistic/fascist in nature, putting the gov't in control of running the largest of US businesses, including all the Big BanKing. Inflation caused by the mountain of fiat “money” creation is not in question, as the FED monitizes all that USDebt, much to the displeasure of the largest holders of it, particularly China, which is using their USDollars to buy up some of the biggest global OIL & Commodity Producers. The real question about inflation is… Will the looming inflation come in a couple of years as most “experts” continue to tell everyone, or could it be much closer… Say in Months or even Weeks? OIL Prices are a good indicator of what the insiders know, as OIL trading has long been dominated by USDollar denominated hegemony. That could however end soon, if the USDollar falls against other global fiat currencies, which would cause OIL Prices to begin to Skyrocket!! Worse yet, what if confidence in all global fiat began to fall off a cliff together with the USD? China seems to be pre-positioning for just such a scenario, as they are loading up on commodities, buying up global producers of commodities with USDollars while they still have value, and are entering strategic alliances with countries like IRAN to fuel that thirsty dragon.
Speaking of IRAN… That is another situation looming at the Dire Straights of Hormuz, the bottleneck at the southern end of the Persian/Arabian Gulf. Iran surrounds the Straights of Hormuz, through which about 40% of global oil exports travel. Iran has in recent days been deploying Mobile Missile Launchers all around the oil flow bottleneck, posturing for a perceived upcoming attack on their Nuclear Facilities. Iran's nuclear program has recently been revealed to be far more advanced than previously understood or disclosed. Obama seems to have abandoned backing up Israel in preventing a nuclear armed Iran, and along with the Pope and much of the rest of the “international community”, is pushing hard for the creation of a Palestinian Terrorist State, presumably as a precondition of any continued US support of Israel in dealing with Iran, which incidentally uses terror organizations such as Hamas as proxies in their frontline war with Israel. This leads to an interesting, yet largely not reported dynamic that could change all prior OIL Trading analyst models. An abandoned Israel may be forced to go it alone in A PREEMPTIVE STRIKE ON IRAN, just to survive, based upon their intelligence of Iran's advances in Nuclear WMD.
Is the USA just spreading DISINFORMATION just prior to a planned coordinated preemptive strike with Israel, while talking about more unfruitful “talks” with the religious fanatical lunatic that seeks to create the chaos needed to set the stage for the “Hidden Imam”, otherwise known as the Isalmic Messiah? Will Israel be forced to make a really hard decision to attack Iran alone? Either way… If Iran uses “THE OIL WEAPON” as they have threatened for so long in response to any attack by the US and/or Israel, all prior oil trading dynamics and models become meaningless and all bets are off…
Aside from OIL FUTURES CALL OPTIONS, ESPECIALLY CALLS WITH HIGH STRIKE PRICES PAST $100 THAT CAN CURRENTLY BE BOUGHT EXTREMELY CHEAP!! Just as certain “insiders” knew about 9-11 and there was a surge in OPTIONS TRADING in the days leading up to the attack… Expect the same prior to any expected strike on Iran, especially by those “in the know” in the USA, and most expecially Israel, which imports almost ALL THEIR OIL!!
Perhaps it may be prudent to monitor any SURGE IN OPTIONS TRADING, especially on the primary commodity affected… CRUDE OIL OPTIONS!!! Crude oil could easily launch into Orbit just on the momentum pile-on speculator trading effect, which would affect practically everything else in modern society, as it is the LIFE-BLOOD of the industrialized global economy… OIL & USD trade inverse to each other… When investors get concerned that the looming inflationary or hyper-inflationary effect on the USD may become a sudden crude reality almost immediately… THE DOMINO EFFECT in ALL COMMODITIES that are primarily traded and denominated by USDollars… Expect GOLD (and scarce Silver), Food, the list goes on… Also look for OPTIONS TRADING SPIKES in all companies that live and/or die based upon ENERGY PRICES in the fragile global economic recovery, which may be in question altogether if OIL SURGES ABOVE $200/BARREL…
China, Iran, and other Arab nations are pre-positioning for what seems to be an inevitable clash in the Middle East. How? LOADING UP ON REAL MONEY… GOLD, and perhaps as indicated by RECENT OIL TRADING ANOMOLIES. The idea of a NWO Global SuperCurrency has been floated in the news recently after meetings of international finance ministers, due to volatility in ForEx markets, and perpaps due to a Globalist Elitist Agenda, which some say is a “conspiracy theory”. But, which world leaders have recently openly stated: “Never waste A GOOD CRISIS”? The IMF is already beginning to sell bonds to BRIC nations for the first time in history, as well as increasing their international financial market controlls, supposedly designed to prevent further escalation of the current crises in the future. One does not have to look very far to see Nationalization and Global Consolidation of Power in the hands of fewer and fewer unelected beaurocrats.
There's an old saying, which seems particularly relevant today… HE WHO OWNS THE GOLD, OWNS THE WORLD. A NWO IMF-BRIC SuperCurrency, partially or fully backed by GOLD, which can be largely provided by China, seems to be in the cards in the not-so-distant future… especially if OIL SURGES, causing inflation and/or hyper-inflation of the USD and/or all fiat currencies, and/or increased volatility in all ForEx Market Trading, which is a vicious cycle, that effects the price of Crude Oil for all countries economies. The jump to a Global SuperCurrency in such an uncertain gyrating environment triggered by Soaring Crude Oil Prices & the USD separation/disconnect may very well seem like the best solution suddenly.
I'm not saying that all these things will happen, but these are some important fundamental issues and dynamics to consider, as Demand Destruction could quickly changed to Supply Interruption and thus, USDollar Destruction via hyper-inflation in a Bailout Nation, who's currency is the currently the dominant one in the entire world. Seems like the NutCase with the YellowCake in Iran has his finger on the global economic recovery nuclear ballistic trigger, which doesn't necessarily require the actual use of an Atomic Bomb, but the serious taken threat of it, which seems to be begging for a Preemptive Strike on their capabilities, which inevitably ends up in Iran using their long-threatened economic warfare tool:
THE $pOIL WEAPON @ HORMUZ… If Iran uses the SpOIL WEAPON for any reason at all, real or contrived….
FORGET THE FUNDAMENTALS!! (TRY RATIONALIZING RADICAL ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISTS)
Why aren't the “News Media” & “Market Experts” considering the implications of recent related oil/economic news events? Afraid to think of or even mention DOOMSDAY IN AN OIL BARREL? APossibilty or CRUDE REALITY??
Anyway, Iran is at this moment deploying Mobile Missile Launchers all around the Dire Straights of Hormuz… Capable of launching more than 10,000 Air/Ground/Sea Missiles Sumultaneously!! At least Iran promises “No Nukes” on 'em.
What if Israel suddenly was discovered to be sitting on the Great Sea of the Deep after hostilities heat up in the Global Market TurmOIL or B-OIL OVER? ZionOIL is drilling to the permian level in Israel right now. Prophecy? We'll see.
As TurmOIL seems to escalate in a crazier and crazier world… People everywhere should reconsider everything they thought they knew, especially regarding priorities this temporal changing world. Pray for Guidance & Peace from Above.
Blessings to All of the Almighty Creator's beloved children… of All Colors and Ethnicity.
May 16th, 2009 - 13:45
Your view sounds great!
I like to invite you to be an author to tell your views here
May 16th, 2009 - 17:45
Your view sounds great!
I like to invite you to be an author to tell your views here