Global Crisis Round Up 6 March 2009

Economic Crisis

Economic Crisis

The world is in a complete mess, this feeling is not uncommon among those who are monitoring the news online.

Energy Crisis

Firstly, Russia had previously hiked up the price of natural gas and expects Ukraine to pay up the new price of natural gas or face another gas supply cut.

This year’s price rise for gas sold by Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom has been dramatic — Naftogaz is paying $360 per 1,000 cubic metres in the first quarter from $179.50 last year, although Ukrainian officials have said they expect the figure to come down steeply.

Naftogaz says its ability to pay for Russian gas is complicated by huge debts owed to it by local utilities.

State security officials tried on Thursday to stage a raid for the second straight day on Ukraine’s gas industry, heightening long-running tensions between the president and prime minister.

A similar raid on Wednesday by armed SBU officers on the offices of national energy company Naftogaz as the firm was making arrangements to settle a critical bill for Russian gas revived feuding between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

Putin, addressing his government, said failure by Ukraine to pay could prompt Gazprom to curtail supplies, as it did for three weeks in January, and again cut off customers in Europe.

“If as a result of law enforcement actions and arrests of a number of officials there will be no payment, it will lead to the stoppage of our energy deliveries to our customers in Ukraine as well as customer in Europe,” Putin said.

Ukraine’s energy company paid its February bill for Russian gas in full Thursday, officials said, moving swiftly to avoid a cutoff that could have affected deliveries to Europe.

In short, Ukraine’s energy future is in serious problem…this include those customers from Europe that receive natural gas from Russia via Ukraine.

Now with the global economic crisis hitting the Eastern Europe with a vengeance, Ukraine and many European countries (involved)  may be facing a relatively dangerous energy crisis in the near future.

North Korea Crisis

NKorea says cannot ensure safety of SKorea flights: state media

North Korea announced Thursday it could not ensure the safety of South Korean flights over the Sea of Japan because an upcoming joint US-South Korean military exercise could trigger a war.

North Korea is also preparing to fire a rocket from a base overlooking the Sea of Japan for what it calls a satellite launch. Seoul and Washington say the real purpose is to test a missile that could theoretically reach Alaska.

“Under the touch-and-go situation where the North and the South are in full combat readiness and level their rifles and artillery pieces at each other, no one can guess what will trigger off a war,” said the North’s statement, from the state Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea.

Its military would respond to the “slightest provocation or its sign” on land, sea or in the air with “decisive and devastating blows at the aggressors.”

IRAN Threat

Commander says Iran missiles can reach Israel atom sites!

Iranian missiles can reach Israeli nuclear sites, a top military commander said on Wednesday, after persistent speculation that Israel could target facilities involved in Iran’s atomic work.

Iran has long said it has missiles that could reach the Jewish state but has not generally mentioned specific targets. Military analysts question whether Iranian missiles have the ability to hit targets at such ranges with great accuracy.

- This have serious implication due to the fact that Iran Commander specified their possible targets on Israel which means they had stepped up their rhetoric against Israel to either provoking for a fight or preparing for one.

It can also be a warning to deter Israel from conducting a military preemptive strike on Iran which may have disastrous consequences now that Iran have missiles that can ‘send satellite’ to space.

What will Israel response to this ‘challenge’? What will Obama administration going to do to control the situation?

Economic Crisis

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said Insurance Fund Could Be Insolvent This Year (2009)

“A large number” of bank failures may occur through 2010 because of “rapidly deteriorating economic conditions,” Bair said in the letter. “Without substantial amounts of additional assessment revenue in the near future, current projections indicate that the fund balance will approach zero or even become negative.”

AIG share prices falls to a record low at $0.36 (6 March 2009) as U.S. regulators failed to spot how much risk insurer AIG was piling on, and by the time they understood, they had no choice but to pour in tens of billions of public dollars, officials said on Thursday.

AIG sold insurance-like protection, known as credit default swaps, against declines in the value of securities — including subprime mortgages that began defaulting at an alarming rate when the housing market tumbled.

That picture emerged Thursday in General Motors Corp.’s annual report, where its auditors voiced “substantial doubt” about GM’s ability to continue operating.

In the report, the company said that Deloitte & Touche LLP cited recurring losses from operations, a sharp decline in stock price and an inability to generate enough cash to meet its obligations as casting doubt on GM being able to continue as a going concern.

The disclosure about a company that has been inseparably linked to jobs and the economy of Western New York for nearly 90 years, means that Chapter 11 protection for GM might not be far away, said a Buffalo expert in corporate bankruptcy law.

“Unless the government comes up with additional bailout assistance, it confirms that Chapter 11 will happen in the near term,” said Garry Graber, a lawyer with HodgsonRuss LLC.

“They have a cash issue — not enough cash flow without government infusion to continue to operate,” he said.

Citigroup stock falls below $1 for first time, One dollar could buy a cup of coffee, a pack of chewing gum, or a roll of bathroom tissue.

For the first time, it could also buy a share of Citigroup Inc (C.N), once the world’s largest bank by market value.

The price of a Citigroup share on Thursday fell below $1 in a sign that investors are losing confidence that the lender, which operates in more than 100 countries, can be restored to health after $37.5 billion of losses in the 15 months ended December 31.

- This means thousands more people will lose their jobs and probably unable to support themselves in the near future…be prepared for self sustainability and stock up at least 2 months worth of food, water & other essentials.

Popularity: 2% [?]

Peak Oil Breaks in to the Media

Google This Two Important Words

Google This Two Important Words

This is the part where the media goes ape shit on the recent release of the “Peak Oil” into the corporate media, most of the media are heavily cencored by the state on issues as sensitive such as this but this is no longer the case.

The Star (Canadian Corporate Media) release two articles on peak oil namely, Take Peak Oil seriously – it’ll be here much sooner than you think and Meet the doomsayers of our time on Feb 15, 2009

Also Financial Times release this article, Total says oil output near peak on February 15 2009.

I have to give them full credit on their courage to even considering releasing these important articles and even declaring that peak oil is near is breathtaking!

It’s out in the open now with more people seeking more information on this term “peak oil” and what will be it’s effects will be and what can we do to prepare for it, I am willing to help out as many people as possible with solutions hopefully.

The Stars mentioned the following about what will happen after the arrival of peak oil.

“It will be a slow deterioration in our quality of life, in the reliability of transportation, in the availability of certain foods as well as price spikes for food,” Nikiforuk said.

“It will cause pandemonium in both the public and private spheres.”

So what should we do?

“Save your capital. Reduce your consumption. A lot. Make yourself accessible to mass transit,” Hughes said. “And forget about buying things at Wal-Mart that were shipped here from halfway around the world.”

“You prepare by walking more, operating one vehicle. You prepare by buying more food locally and talking to your friends about getting engaged in the political process,” said Nikiforuk. “Oil has made us fat and lazy. … It was a 150-year addiction to an energy source we didn’t appreciate or use particularly wisely. It distorted our economy. Now it’s going. And we can’t go back to business as usual.”

The doomer article suggest that people who actually prepares to survive will need to unite and teach each other skills that we all need to survive in the future, those who don’t prepare will be left behind.

There are more to the story about the future that we can expect to happen, those countries that have huge land can advice their population to start farming for their own food using natural fertilizers (animal or human shit, compost of leftover) but countries that have little to or no land can expect extreme hardship or worse without preparation.

Hopefully I can enlighten you to begin your own preparation for self sustainability regardless of COST as it will soon be next to impossible to even when the shit really hits the fan.

Ok, I will embed some videos into a brand new page for everyone to self educate themselves on the topic of PEAK OIL before we can start to prepare for survival.

Do not panic as it will bring about true horror of anarchy and chaos.

If there are no riots outside your door steps, there are still time to prepare…hopefully.

Popularity: 1% [?]

Economic Crisis to Start Anarchy & Chaos? Or is it Energy Crisis?

Riot Police

Riot Police

There had been discussions in length on many news article on how will this economic crisis play out, will it be the beginning of massive social unrest and political instability or worse?…Global Conflict?

I had been warning the world ever since my first post on my very first energy crisis blog but I am not really happy to say the “I told you so” to the world.

This economic crisis have many fronts and currently the finger is  pointing to the greed of bankers that caused the sub prime credit crisis in the first place however I kindly beg you to look at the bigger picture.

Let’s ask some relevant questions.

Why the debt driven economy by printing money by the U.S. Government to exchange for Government Bonds aka fiat money system NO LONGER WORKS anymore?

Why can’t the world remains status quo anymore and since when did it start to really go down hill?

Is it when the first sub prime mortgages goes public on how bad it really was?
Is it the first bank to go under, namely the Lehman Brothers?
Is it when Madoff finally declared that it’s all a Ponzi Scam instead of “investment basket”.

Riot Fire

Riot Fire

I believe it goes way back…back to the day when economist declare that oil does not runs out and it will be cheap always…and starts to blur illusions into economic reality, to convince politician that only “growth” to their GDP is the best for all man kind.

Politician thinks that money drives the economy and standard of living but how wrong are they…it’s the abundance of fossil fuels that mother nature is giving us humans a brief moment of industrial revolution & surge of modern technologies that gave us automated factories, faster computer chips, longer human lifespan against diseases, ATM, Internet banking, WIFI, Youtube, Climate Cool oil based clothes, iPhones, roads and everything in front of you comes with easily accessible fossil fuels directly or indirectly.

The world simply printed money and exchange for something finite such as Crude Oil & Natural Gas.

Now I will tell you when it truly the REAL breaking point….it is when WTI Light Crude hits the $147 dollars per barrel!!

When President Bush went to Saudi Arabia to beg King Abdullah, the Saudi ruler to open the oil supply tap wider when $127 a barrel…he was rejected outright.

That’s is when the sub prime market began to self destruct and the ripple spread to credit market and all the rest of the banking sectors, then due to massive unemployment and shrinking purchasing power of the consumers…thousands of manufacturing in China got affected so does the rest of the world imports and exports got nuked.

Now, with the vicious cycle of diminishing markets comes OPEC cutting the supply of the very substance that the world depends on modern day living…namely crude oil.

It’s understandably that the oil industry is getting the serious lack of investments and profit to expand the oil production or even maintain current level of oil “production” to service the world at a extremely cheap price of oil.

The risk is that the oil industry may turn to substandard equipments and man power to cut cost risking irreversible damages to oil fields around the world causing less and less oil reserve to be pumped out of the oil wells regardless of locations.

Non-Conventional oil such as Tar sands, deep sea oil wells, Oil shale, or any other non-conventional fossil fuels come at a much higher cost than conventional easy to get low sulfur light crude oil hence more likely to be hit more severely by the economic crisis that might affect future “oil supply”.

Refineries now simply do more maintenance and refine less oil regardless of steady increasing demand of petrol by consumers so that the gasoline remains at current prices or even higher despite the lower price of crude oil.

Many countries are stock piling up more oil in preparation of the inevitable of oil shortages when the demand heats up not due to economic recovery but the actual basic needs by the population for all the oil based products we humans depends on daily.

Everything will come crumbling down with OPEC & Non-Opec Oil producing countries unable to reverse previous production figures due to the fact that they can’t do it IN THE BEGINNING OF THE CRISIS.

WHY?

The one word to describe the situation is PEAK OIL.

The very foundation of human modern civilization depends on this fuel and peak oil means the global “production” of oil finally peak in speed of production due to natural declines in oil oil wells and less new mega oil discovery over the pas 40 years…and most of us just blames the bankers.

Maybe we should blame them for giving their personal “estimates” and “economic predictions” base on 10 years or 20 years market figures…not knowing that the problems of PEAK OIL that only happens once in the global scale…and no real precendent to “predict”.

The closest to PEAK OIL is during the 1973 OIL Crisis when OPEC embargo oil to America causing a oil shortages paniking the population into conservation, yes…for America who was the number one oil exporters in the 1950s to suffer PEAK OIL production in the country and became a NET OIL Importer

It is inevitable and as more and more demand on growing population of modern car drivers & demand of petrol chemical products such as plastic goods goes into the market…MORE oil is required.

USA had now acquired the world number one oil IMPORTER title and China is fast catching up…which is a worrying trend.

Riot

Riot

However, as nature comes as no surprise comes and destroy the demand naturally by economic destruction by a simple  sub prime crisis…which now you know is actually belongs to the energy crisis category instead.

Seriously, we humans cannot plan ahead far enough into the future until the disaster really strikes but there are many individuals such as you who read other people’s ideas and can make their own decisions about what the future holds…such as ANARCHY & Chaos can decide now to prepare for a post oil world…where people can really be self sufficient and no longer dependent on oil.

Do your due diligence to research on PEAK OIL and make your own conclusions and decisions, my views on the economic crisis is almost directly linked to the energy crisis is my own personal opinions and should not be use for any investment guide or directions towards any investments.

Be prepared or be sorry.

Note: All photos are taken from Flickr under the Creative Commons licensing.

Popularity: 1% [?]

Energy execs debate whether oil crisis looms


According to Yahoo!UK Ireland News:

HOUSTON (Reuters) – Are the lacklustre production and reserve replacement rates reported by the largest oil companies precursors to a looming oil crisis?

The largest oil companies have had increased difficulty meeting a range of challenges to increase their production, including mature oil fields with declining production rates and restrictive regimes that have tightened their hold on their resources as commodity prices have.

The issue was much debated by oil executives and industry watchers at the CERA energy conference this week.

An oil crisis is coming in the next 10 years,” said John Hess, chief executive of Hess Corp . He said that he believes oil producing companies and countries are not investing enough to ensure sufficient production capacity to meet growing demand.

“While recent discoveries … are promising, we need to find a new production basin like the Alaska North Slope or Angola every year to ensure that we can grow our oil resource base to support increases in production for future generations. We stopped making such meaningful discoveries during the late 1990s,” he said.

As their coffers have swelled in recent years from record oil prices, many oil companies have spent more on dividends and share repurchases than on capital projects.

Earlier this year, Chevron and Royal Dutch Shell indicated that their replacement levels of produced oil and gas for 2007 would disappoint investors, and even Exxon’s first-quarter production was lighter than many analysts had hoped.

There is an urgent need to strengthen the flow of capital into upstream oil,” said Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the International Energy Agency. “We remain comfortable with the adequacy of the world’s hydrocarbon reserves, but we are anxious to mitigate the above ground risks that complicate today’s markets.”

PEAK APPROACHING?

Ironically, StatoilHydro CEO Helge Lund said the shortage of industry spending is due in part to the high oil prices that have brought in that windfall to the companies.

Oil companies could be hesitant to spend money to pick up new exploration and production projects because they will have to pay for these assets based on an oil price that they believe is inflated.

It is a question of whether you can make efficient investment decisions and be at the right cost level in the current environment,” he said.

Cambridge Energy Research Associates, the conference’s host organization, believes that adequate oil supply should be available in the near term.

According to a study released last month, CERA estimates that the global decline rate of fields currently in production is 4.5 percent — a lower number than previously believed. The group says this means that the oil supply won’t hit a peak and start to contract in the short term.

Even those who don’t see a peak approaching still expect challenges.

The supply of easy oil will not keep up,” said Linda Cook, executive director of gas and power at Royal Dutch Shell, noting that unconventional resources like oil sands and oil shale, as well as liquefied natural gas, will have to pick up the slack

- They all talking like they know what they are talking about, mostly just want more money to spend to “discover” more oil, improve the “technology” of extraction and other “projects” to harvest “unconventional” natural “resources”. The price tag for oil will continue it’s bullish run until someone either found a super mega oil fields or discovered abundance of cheap alternative energy somewhere, both unlikely to happen so soon.

Political tension in the middle east plus substantial rise in global demand for “energy” will be making oil prices generally high and fluctuating wildly. Gold, platinum, wheat, and palm oil are few commodities that many had switch their funds into wishing for more bullish run. Seriously, the higher the cost of these “commodities” the more unlikely that human can survive the destruction force of hyper inflation and stagnant growth – stagflation.

Economic recession + high inflation will create a situation that money means absolutely nothing when cost of bread for example, increase to a certain point of being “unavailable” on the shelves and buying from the black market will be result in even more unreasonable prices. By then nobody can afford anything even when they used to be considered well off with “high” salary.

If you earn 3k and above, you are pretty well off for now but in the future when food cost 10 times more…then you will not have enough to survive on plus additional security cost (body guards and locks etc) to protect from the looters and robbers formed by the poor and desperate.

Of course most people will ask me to “deal with it” as inflation had been always there and nothing is going to change that but they don’t realize the solutions to “deal with it” might not be everyone taste and those who are not mentally prepared or never wanted to prepare anything like super spike in cost of living including food, electricity, transportation, medical and more.

Maybe I am the only one fearing for the worst…maybe it’s better to pretend I don’t know about peak oil and carry on living as normal. Using the movie “The Matrix” comparison, “Peak Oil” is the blue pill that waken me up to the “real world” and it’s hard to take back the “red pill” and go back into the matrix forgetting all my research…and throw away my solar panels and renewable energy experiments. It’s hard to understand majority of the population still thinks it’s business as usual.

“The wake up call is here, follow the white rabbit, Neo…knock knock”

Popularity: 1% [?]