Russia sees no need for oil cuts as shortage looming

According to Yahoo!News:

MOSCOW, April 22 – Russia believes global oil output cuts will have a short-lived effect and made no sense given a looming global supply shortage in the medium term, Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko said on Wednesday.

“According to various estimates, there will be a serious shortage of oil supply, maybe in one, maybe in two-three years,” Shmatko told reporters.

“It will coincide with the end of the global economic crisis and will lead to serious instability, including in the pricing of oil,” he said. “A simple cut in production can, in our view, have only a short-lived impact.”

Read the full article at Yahoo!News:

- Russia to predict this as the beginning of the OIL SHORTAGE AKA PEAK OIL EFFECTs to impact the whole world in 2 to 3 years time!!!?

What does Russia knows that most people on the streets don’t?

Let me put up various assumptions

  1. The Russian knew about peak oil way longer then I do
  2. The Russian already knew a pending war in the Gulf is about to erupt?
  3. Russian use reverse psychology to give investors a great scare to boost the price of oil without cutting oil supply…hmm
  4. Russia forcing OPEC to cut more instead so to earn more without sacrificing it’s own output.

Well, Israel is still hot on Iran’s dateline for Nuclear Plant “activation” and possibly strike BEFORE it’s activation date but who knows? It can be next week…2 days from now…tonight…now?

The problem is nobody is fully prepared for such event to happen and seriously it seems Russia is prepared for the very possible oil shortage in the medium term…1 to 3 years time…which is VERY FREAKY close to the end of the world date “2012″…or is it just a myth? Y2K anyone?

Well, I think we will all die one day but I want to die a happy man…with someone that I care or love to be with by my side hugging and smiling (Scene in the movie “Knowing”).

What can we do? I am not sure, Singapore seems to be experiencing heat wave & sudden gush of storms lately…not sure about the rest of the world…but I feel maybe the storm is coming…the real storm that will flood the world in few hours…the real event of ELE (Extinction Level Event).

The ice coming down into the ocean from greenland in a big SPLASH to create a MEGA TSUNAMI so huge…it will make many small countries disappear overnight…leaving a whirlpool of nothingness.

The sun may erupt into violent solar storms that caused great electrical distabuance in the whole world…massive blackouts, stalled vehicles, crashing planes, derailment of trains and the great migration of refugees from frozen wasteland or desert land that no longer have electricity for months and months ahead…even with working generators…some electronics might not even work after the solar storm…causing great confusion and panic.

Massive numbers of people will jump to their death when their favorite video sharing site crashed and loses ALL data forever and unable to reboot…they can’t surf the internet anyway.

Many have to learn how to scarvenge or loot their way to survive as millions or billions will no longer able to work without computers.

Of course the above scenario are not a reality now hence we have to feel blessed to be alive now rather then in the future…

Popularity: 2% [?]

Global Crisis Round Up 6 March 2009

Economic Crisis

Economic Crisis

The world is in a complete mess, this feeling is not uncommon among those who are monitoring the news online.

Energy Crisis

Firstly, Russia had previously hiked up the price of natural gas and expects Ukraine to pay up the new price of natural gas or face another gas supply cut.

This year’s price rise for gas sold by Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom has been dramatic — Naftogaz is paying $360 per 1,000 cubic metres in the first quarter from $179.50 last year, although Ukrainian officials have said they expect the figure to come down steeply.

Naftogaz says its ability to pay for Russian gas is complicated by huge debts owed to it by local utilities.

State security officials tried on Thursday to stage a raid for the second straight day on Ukraine’s gas industry, heightening long-running tensions between the president and prime minister.

A similar raid on Wednesday by armed SBU officers on the offices of national energy company Naftogaz as the firm was making arrangements to settle a critical bill for Russian gas revived feuding between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

Putin, addressing his government, said failure by Ukraine to pay could prompt Gazprom to curtail supplies, as it did for three weeks in January, and again cut off customers in Europe.

“If as a result of law enforcement actions and arrests of a number of officials there will be no payment, it will lead to the stoppage of our energy deliveries to our customers in Ukraine as well as customer in Europe,” Putin said.

Ukraine’s energy company paid its February bill for Russian gas in full Thursday, officials said, moving swiftly to avoid a cutoff that could have affected deliveries to Europe.

In short, Ukraine’s energy future is in serious problem…this include those customers from Europe that receive natural gas from Russia via Ukraine.

Now with the global economic crisis hitting the Eastern Europe with a vengeance, Ukraine and many European countries (involved)  may be facing a relatively dangerous energy crisis in the near future.

North Korea Crisis

NKorea says cannot ensure safety of SKorea flights: state media

North Korea announced Thursday it could not ensure the safety of South Korean flights over the Sea of Japan because an upcoming joint US-South Korean military exercise could trigger a war.

North Korea is also preparing to fire a rocket from a base overlooking the Sea of Japan for what it calls a satellite launch. Seoul and Washington say the real purpose is to test a missile that could theoretically reach Alaska.

“Under the touch-and-go situation where the North and the South are in full combat readiness and level their rifles and artillery pieces at each other, no one can guess what will trigger off a war,” said the North’s statement, from the state Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea.

Its military would respond to the “slightest provocation or its sign” on land, sea or in the air with “decisive and devastating blows at the aggressors.”

IRAN Threat

Commander says Iran missiles can reach Israel atom sites!

Iranian missiles can reach Israeli nuclear sites, a top military commander said on Wednesday, after persistent speculation that Israel could target facilities involved in Iran’s atomic work.

Iran has long said it has missiles that could reach the Jewish state but has not generally mentioned specific targets. Military analysts question whether Iranian missiles have the ability to hit targets at such ranges with great accuracy.

- This have serious implication due to the fact that Iran Commander specified their possible targets on Israel which means they had stepped up their rhetoric against Israel to either provoking for a fight or preparing for one.

It can also be a warning to deter Israel from conducting a military preemptive strike on Iran which may have disastrous consequences now that Iran have missiles that can ‘send satellite’ to space.

What will Israel response to this ‘challenge’? What will Obama administration going to do to control the situation?

Economic Crisis

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said Insurance Fund Could Be Insolvent This Year (2009)

“A large number” of bank failures may occur through 2010 because of “rapidly deteriorating economic conditions,” Bair said in the letter. “Without substantial amounts of additional assessment revenue in the near future, current projections indicate that the fund balance will approach zero or even become negative.”

AIG share prices falls to a record low at $0.36 (6 March 2009) as U.S. regulators failed to spot how much risk insurer AIG was piling on, and by the time they understood, they had no choice but to pour in tens of billions of public dollars, officials said on Thursday.

AIG sold insurance-like protection, known as credit default swaps, against declines in the value of securities — including subprime mortgages that began defaulting at an alarming rate when the housing market tumbled.

That picture emerged Thursday in General Motors Corp.’s annual report, where its auditors voiced “substantial doubt” about GM’s ability to continue operating.

In the report, the company said that Deloitte & Touche LLP cited recurring losses from operations, a sharp decline in stock price and an inability to generate enough cash to meet its obligations as casting doubt on GM being able to continue as a going concern.

The disclosure about a company that has been inseparably linked to jobs and the economy of Western New York for nearly 90 years, means that Chapter 11 protection for GM might not be far away, said a Buffalo expert in corporate bankruptcy law.

“Unless the government comes up with additional bailout assistance, it confirms that Chapter 11 will happen in the near term,” said Garry Graber, a lawyer with HodgsonRuss LLC.

“They have a cash issue — not enough cash flow without government infusion to continue to operate,” he said.

Citigroup stock falls below $1 for first time, One dollar could buy a cup of coffee, a pack of chewing gum, or a roll of bathroom tissue.

For the first time, it could also buy a share of Citigroup Inc (C.N), once the world’s largest bank by market value.

The price of a Citigroup share on Thursday fell below $1 in a sign that investors are losing confidence that the lender, which operates in more than 100 countries, can be restored to health after $37.5 billion of losses in the 15 months ended December 31.

- This means thousands more people will lose their jobs and probably unable to support themselves in the near future…be prepared for self sustainability and stock up at least 2 months worth of food, water & other essentials.

Popularity: 2% [?]

Israel Fighting Covert War Inside Iran!

Israel Fighting Covert War Inside Iran

Israel Fighting Covert War Inside Iran

According to Yahoo!News:

LONDON – Israel is involved in a covert war of sabotage inside Iran in an effort to delay Tehran’s attempts to develop a nuclear weapon, the Daily Telegraph newspaper reported Tuesday.

Quoting intelligence experts and an unnamed former CIA agent, the newspaper said Israel’s “decapitation” strategy had targeted members of Iran’s atomic program, hoping to set back the country’s nuclear ambitions without resorting to war.

The program has taken on extra emphasis with the election of President Barack Obama, who has adopted a more diplomatic line with Iran, quietening former Bush administration talk of a possible military strike against Iran to hit its nuclear assets.

“Disruption is designed to slow progress on the program, done in such a way they don’t realise what’s happening,” the paper quoted a former CIA operative as saying.

Read the full article at Yahoo!News:

- Yeow! This article apparently released on purpose because if it’s supposed to be a “secret” then…this may be the very article that cause the death of those secret Israeli agents working inside Iran!

Or is it something else all together? Is this a way to counter the Iran ambitions by making themselves second guessing their own people? Make them remove some key personnel from the whole nuclear project for “generating electricity” hence indirectly delaying the status without lifting a finger.

Very clever chess move I might add, but if indeed it’s true that there are saboteur inside Iran…than they must be in extremely dangerous situation since this article had almost certainly sounded the alarm bells within Iran.

Iran now desperately wanted the advanced anti-aircraft system, S-300, from Russia.

Russia is contemplating it’s next chess move whether to support Iran and risk spoiling any chance of developing a relationship with the new America to foster brand new political & economic ties with USA and Washington could slow development of a missile defence system in Europe…OR Join Iran to fight against USA & Israel for whatever reasons…oil?

If Russia goes towards giving Iran the S-300 anti aircraft missiles, it will means that IRAN WILL NOT BE EASY BOMBING TARGETS ANYMORE….This means if Israel or anyone wish to Bomb Iran…it will have to happen before Iran can get their hands on S-300 missiles which is called SA-20 by the west.

Popularity: 1% [?]

Russia May Cut 320,000 barrels per day, if oil prices fell further.

According to Yahoo!News:

Russia is working towards creating a state reserve to buy crude from producers when prices are low, potentially removing up to 16 million tonnes of Russian oil from export markets, a top energy official said on Monday.

Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, who oversees the oil and gas sector, said the move could help the Organisation of Petroleum Producing Countries stabilise oil prices.

Sechin travelled to Algeria in December and told OPEC delegates that Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter and the biggest outside OPEC, could cut exports by 16 million tonnes, or 320,000 barrels per day, if oil prices fell further.

Read the full article at Yahoo!News:

- This means Russia is going to propose their own supply cuts to assist in “stabilizing” the oil market which in layman terms to INCREASE the oil prices by supply cuts.

Russia wants to wait until OPEC meeting in march to propose the plan to OPEC to have a joint supply “cuts” to have a major impact on the oil prices…

15 March 2009 is the date to watch as OPEC Meeting will take place in Vienna, Austria for the 152nd (Ordinary) Meeting of the OPEC Conference.

16 March 2009 Monday will shall see some kind of speculative oil price movement that may or may not move beyond $45 per barrel which is highly incredible if true but if OPEC decide to turn off more oil from the export market and create an artificial oil shortage…the oil prices MAY SPIKE over time when the delay effects comes about one month to 3 months depending on how fast these oil producers wants it.

End March we shall see high oil prices fluctuations and crazy speculative trading that most people will either cash in or crash out in a short period of time, my advice is to watch and see if the oil prices momentum before any actions.

There will be hardship for those who can’t keep up with the possible hyper inflation that started off as a “Economic Stimulus” to bail out banks and the country’s crippling economy but it the “free money” may end up giving inflation a big boost.

My speculation may be a possible drop in USD after March 15 and very sharp movements to Crude Oil Prices for at least a few hours before yo yo up and down like mad.

Popularity: 1% [?]